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Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Who has the No. 1 pick?

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Should the Steelers look for Big Ben's successor in the 2021 draft? (1:21)

Mike Tannenbaum and Bart Scott discuss whether the Steelers should look for Ben Roethlisberger's successor in the draft or bring in a more experienced quarterback. (1:21)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have locked up the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, while the New York Jets have clinched the No. 2 pick. The Jets had been the favorites for the top spot since Week 5, according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), but back-to-back wins in Weeks 15 and 16 means the Jaguars now get their chance at the top quarterback in the class. The rest of the top 10 is still undecided.

Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team's average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Dec. 29):

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: Clinched


2. New York Jets (2-13)

FPI chance to earn No. 2 pick: Clinched


3. Atlanta Falcons (4-11)

Average draft position: 4.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 75.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched


4. Miami Dolphins (10-5; from 4-11 HOU)

Average draft position: 4.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 62%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched


5. Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1)

Average draft position: 5.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 73.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched


6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1)

Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 40.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Clinched


7. Detroit Lions (5-10)

Average draft position: 7.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 28.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 84.3%


8. Carolina Panthers (5-10)

Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77%


9. Denver Broncos (5-10)

Average draft position: 10.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.6%


10. Los Angeles Chargers (6-9)

Average draft position: 10.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 45.4%


11. New York Giants (5-10)

Average draft position: 11.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 49.2%


12. Dallas Cowboys (6-9)

Average draft position: 12.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 52.2%


13. Minnesota Vikings (6-9)

Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 1.4%


14. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.6%


15. New England Patriots (6-8)

Average draft position: 14.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: Eliminated
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.2%


16. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)

Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated


17. Washington Football Team (6-9)

Average draft position: 16.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.2%


18. Arizona Cardinals (8-7)

Average draft position: 18.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated


19. Chicago Bears (8-7)

Average draft position: 19.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated


20. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

Average draft position: 20.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: Eliminated


21. Miami Dolphins (10-5)

Average draft position: 22.2


22. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15; from 9-6 LAR)

Average draft position: 22.3


23. Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

Average draft position: 22.8


24. Tennessee Titans (10-5)

Average draft position: 24.0


25. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

Average draft position: 25.1


26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5)

Average draft position: 26.3


27. New York Jets (2-13; from 11-4 SEA)

Average draft position: 26.5


28. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3)

Average draft position: 27.3


29. Buffalo Bills (11-3)

Average draft position: 27.6


30. New Orleans Saints (11-4)

Average draft position: 28.0


31. Green Bay Packers (12-3)

Average draft position: 29.2


32. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)

Average draft position: 30.5