In the NBA's apron era, front offices need to be smarter than ever.
A failed win-now superstar trade not only depletes draft capital, it comes with the potential for severe roster-building penalties down the line. Repeated stalled playoff runs not only frustrate fan bases, they can create top-heavy teams that lack true avenues to improve. Recent NBA champions now seem to face immediate financial reckonings.
For the following 19 teams, roster-building dilemmas such as these are looming.
We put them into five tiers, ranging from franchises on the cusp of major decisions, to contenders desperate to prolong title windows, to teams whose futures hinge on their stars' next deal.
Tier 1: The danger zone
Milwaukee is not in this tenuous position because of the aftermath of the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, but because of a roster move during the franchise's attempts at building another championship roster around him.
In July, the league opened a salary cap circumvention investigation into the Bucks and veteran guard Gary Trent Jr. The allegations stem from Trent signing a four-year, $64 million contract this summer despite averaging the second-fewest points and second-worst field goal percentage in his career.
Trent was coming off a two-year, $7.5 million contract with the Bucks, which paid him $3.7 million during the 2025-26 season and established his early Bird rights -- allowing Milwaukee to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him. So far this season, Trent has played a total of 13 minutes. (The league's collective bargaining agreement contains a clause against "prior agreement.")
If found guilty, Milwaukee could lose multiple first-round picks and face suspensions within its front office. The Bucks have no control of their next four first-round picks but do have five firsts (including two from Miami) starting in 2031.
The defending champs are here despite the mandate from owner James Dolan to avoid the second apron altogether. The Knicks are projected to be $15 million below the threshold next season and will remain below even after filling their roster with minimum contracts. But, unless there is a trade to clear salary, New York will lose reserve guard Miles McBride.
Dolan's hardline approach won't truly be tested until the 2028 offseason.
Not including new contracts for Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart and a substantial raise for Jalen Brunson -- the guard's salary is expected to increase from $43 million to $66 million -- New York will be a projected $104 million under the second apron.
Towns has a $61 million player option for 2027-28, and there is a $22 million team option on Hart's deal. Both players remain extension eligible through June 30.
The good news: Oklahoma City already has 13 players under contract for next season with a likely 2027 lottery pick (via the Clippers) also on the way.
The bad news: With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace's extensions beginning in 2027-28, Oklahoma City will head into the second apron next season. Not including the possibility of three first-round picks, the Thunder are projected to be $21 million over the threshold.
Including the picks, OKC faces a total salary and tax obligation exceeding $500 million next season.
Though the Thunder's finances seem dire right now, keep in mind they shaved nearly $200 million from their current payroll via trades (Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe) this offseason.
And with new contracts on the horizon ahead of 2028-29 for Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain, the roster will only get more expensive. Without accounting for the two deals, Oklahoma City is already a projected $8 million over the second apron that season.
Tier 2: The pressure zone
The Cavaliers have turned over their roster in the last year without tweaking their core of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Further improvements this season and over the next two years could prove more difficult, unless Cleveland is willing to part ways with Allen or key reserve guard Sam Merrill.
Five players (Mitchell, Mobley, Allen, Peyton Watson and James Harden) combine to earn at least 85% of the salary cap over the next three seasons. The Cavaliers also have no tradable firsts to include in a deal.
The Cavaliers are $45,000 below the first apron this season and are projected to be $12 million under the second apron in 2027-28. They will exceed the second apron for a second time in four years if Jaylon Tyson signs a rookie extension next summer.
With Nikola Jokic continuing to remind us that he will sign with Denver in the 2027 offseason, we thought about excluding the Nuggets. The three-time MVP is eligible to sign a five-year, $359.5 million contract, the largest in NBA history.
But how can the Nuggets not be in the pressure zone when they have one of the top NBA players on their roster and have not advanced past the second round in the past three seasons? When Jokic does sign, he will be looking at a roster that returns Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, Spencer Jones and Trevon Brazile.
How the Nuggets add to their roster presents a challenge. They do not have a first-round pick in June and can retain forward Cameron Johnson or use the $16 million non-tax midlevel exception. (Both options are probably not available considering Denver is $32 million under the first apron.)
For the first time since 2016, Golden State is likely to enter the offseason with cap space.
Though the financial flexibility is enticing, can the Warriors rely solely on free agency or should they use the expiring contract of Kristaps Porzingis to make a trade this season?
With nine players under contract for 2027-28, including Stephen Curry, Golden State is projected to have $52 million in available cap space. The projection does not include 2027 free agents Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green and Porzingis ($3 million of his salary is guaranteed).
Two words why the Lakers are in the pressure zone: Luka Doncic.
One of the early favorites for MVP this season, Doncic will be entering the last year of his contract next season (he does have a $57.4 million player option in 2028-29) and again is extension-eligible.
On Aug. 2, Doncic can sign a four-year, $290 million extension with the Lakers or elect to play out the season and become a free agent in 2028. (He would then be eligible for a five-year, $375 million contract with the Lakers.)
In the meantime, L.A. can add to its roster in free agency the non-tax midlevel exception) or via trade (six players ranging from $6 million to $32 million to match salaries but without a first-rounder to deal).
Early-season struggles prove Miami needs more around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. And though the former is likely to extend his contract in either January or this summer, adding players around the star big men could be challenging.
Acquiring Antetokounmpo wiped out Miami's collection of tradable first-round picks, leaving the franchise with only 2029 and 2032 swaps to offer in deals. On draft night, the Heat will unlock their 2027 (top-14 protected) and 2034 first-rounders.
With Antetokounmpo and Adebayo combining to earn more than 60% of the salary cap, the Heat will need to cobble together enough salary to put in a trade. Sizable contracts include Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Bobby Portis (if his option is exercised), Klay Thompson (if his option is exercised) and Pelle Larsson (starting on July 1).
As for adding in free agency next summer, Miami can use its non-tax midlevel exception but at the cost of re-signing starting guard Davion Mitchell.
Orlando's roster is approaching a crossroads. With three players on maximum contracts (Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Desmond Bane), Orlando is a luxury tax team this season despite failing to advance past the first round the previous three seasons.
They are $20 million under the tax next season and could lose restricted free agent Anthony Black unless a trade is made to open financial flexibility.
Tier 3: Dancing around the first apron
For now, we have the Celtics penciled in as a team exceeding the first apron next season (they are $2.3 million under with two roster spots open). Paul George's $56.6 million player option could change that.
Would George decline the option and sign at a lower number to secure guaranteed money in future seasons?
Signing a new two-year, $80 million contract in lieu of the option would get Boston close to the $16 million needed to use the non-tax midlevel exception or boost financial flexibility in trade discussions.
The Suns have been active in retaining their own players. In the past year, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams, Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin and Oso Ighodaro have either extended or re-signed as free agents. But keeping their roster intact this season and next will be expensive.
Phoenix is over the first apron and, for the fourth time in five seasons, is a luxury tax team. Barring a trade, the Suns are a tax team again in 2027-28 if Miles Bridges signs an extension.
Jalen Green's future will play a role determining their flexibility. Green has a $36 million player option next season but is currently averaging a career lows in scoring (12.4 points) and 3-point shooting (21.4%).
Tier 4: The luxury tax club
Signing the young core of Jabari Smith Jr, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason and Amen Thompson to long-term contracts signaled that the Rockets are ready to reenter the luxury tax next season. Houston also probably will exceed the first apron if Fred VanVleet re-signs.
Though the cost of the roster could get expensive, Houston is in an enviable position of competing for a championship while also having draft assets to improve. In the Rockets' case, the right to swap first-round picks with Brooklyn and an unprotected pick from Phoenix are key.
Will the Pacers venture into the luxury tax for a second consecutive year? Indiana is currently $5.9 million over the threshold and, barring a trade, will pay the penalty for the first time since 2005-06. (For example, moving the $8.5 million expiring contract of Jarace Walker would get the franchise under.)
Next season, Indiana is a projected $1.5 million below the luxury tax with 11 players under contract. Besides balancing finances, Indiana has decisions on next contracts for Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac, Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin. Each player is eligible for an extension in the offseason and will hit free agency in 2028 if a new contract is not reached.
The Timberwolves have not been shy about spending on their roster. Including this season, Minnesota has paid $120 million in luxury tax penalties since 2024-25 (the Wolves also finished over the second apron in that season).
The 2027-28 roster is set to get even more expensive.
Not including free agent Donte DiVincenzo, Minnesota is $6 million below the tax and $14 million under the first apron in 2027-28. If the Wolves remain over, they will trigger the repeater-tax level accompanied by heavier financial penalties.
Minnesota could get some financial relief if Rudy Gobert declines his $38 million player option and re-signs at a lower salary.
With a roster that includes Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, do not expect the 76ers to cut costs like previous seasons (don't remind Philadelphia fans about trading Jared McCain to the Thunder last February). The 76ers will finish this season over the tax and are expected to again in 2027-28.
Philly has two extension candidates to watch: Maxey is eligible to sign a four-year, $304 million supermax extension if he is named All-NBA this season, and Brown can extend for three years, $221 million.
There are no guaranteed salaries on their books past the 2029-30 season.
Tier 5: Free agent decisions await
The future of Kyrie Irving plays a role in how the Mavericks build their roster around Cooper Flagg.
Irving can be a free agent next season if he declines the $42.4 million player option in his contract. If he opts-in, Dallas is still well below the first apron to sign a player to the $16 million non-tax midlevel exception in free agency. If Irving departs, Dallas would not have cap space unless the $17 million team option of Santi Aldama is declined and Dereck Lively II is not re-signed.
The Spurs got a financial reprieve when Victor Wembanyama extended his contract for just 25% of the salary cap in 2027-28.
By doing so, Wembanyama's cap hit next season will remain at $44 million (it could have increased to $52.8 million) even if he is named MVP, All-NBA or Defensive Player of the Year.
Despite the discount, San Antonio remains pressed against the luxury tax and first apron. Not including reigning Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson, San Antonio is $11 million under the tax and $18 million under the first apron.
The roster only gets more expensive in future years, with Stephon Castle extension-eligible next summer and Dylan Harper the following year.
The trade deadline and offseason will present the Raptors with a decision on starting forward RJ Barrett.
With the first year of extensions kicking in for Kawhi Leonard and Jakob Poeltl, Toronto projects to be a luxury tax and possible first apron team if Barrett is re-signed or extended during the season. The Raptors are currently $22 million under the tax and $28.5 million below the first apron.
The Wizards signed Trae Young to a four-year, $212 million contract last offseason and now face a similar decision with Anthony Davis.
Davis has two years remaining on his contract (2027-28 is a player option) and is eligible to sign an extension up until June 30. Davis said before the season that contract talks would need to wait until the summer.
If Davis continues to play at an All-Star level this season and, more importantly, stays healthy, will Washington reward him with a lucrative contract? Davis turns 34 in March and has played fewer than 56 games in five of the previous six seasons. (Davis has not sat out a game this season.)
With half of the roster signed to first-round rookie contracts, Washington is well positioned financially to sign Davis long term.