Are you excited for NFL Week 8? This is our first loaded slate of the season. Ravens at Bills. Vikings at Lions. Browns at Steelers. Chiefs at Broncos. Bears at Seahawks. Even the not-so-great games (Falcons at Buccaneers and Colts at Jaguars) mean a lot for divisional standings.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.
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This week, I'll start with a prediction/plea for the Chiefs to make a trade for a receiver. Then I'll put all my hope and joy on the back of a fourth-round rookie. And finally, I'll admit I can't do my job.
Jump to:
Chiefs will make a WR trade
Stefanski will be Coach of the Year
Goff is a sleeper MVP candidate
Coleman could save Broncos' offense
Ravens' D disqualifies them from contention
QB3 Leonard starts for Colts by Week 10
Young is a complicated study
Some extra inklings
I think ... the Chiefs' loss to Seattle will bully them into making the trade they need to make
Have you ever gotten embarrassed on national television? Me neither.
The 2026 Chiefs sure have. Kansas City scored three points against the Seahawks on Sunday night, marking only the second time in Patrick Mahomes' career that his team has been held to three or fewer points. The 11 first downs the Chiefs accumulated were their fewest in 153 Mahomes starts, and this was only his fourth start without a single explosive pass. The offense averaged 4.3 yards per play (148th out of 153), produced minus-0.13 EPA per play (148th) and had a success rate of 34% (152nd).
It's easy to explain this one. The Seahawks, off a two-game losing streak, were hosting an unbeaten Chiefs team at home -- that defense was amped-up for four quarters. The Chiefs were down both starting tackles (Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore) along with two of three starting receivers (Tyquan Thornton and Rashee Rice), and the passing offense played like it. Even the Chiefs' ace in the hole -- their interior offensive line's dominance in the running game -- was beaten in this game, as they ran into the league-best defensive tackle duo of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II. I didn't think it would look as bad as it did, but it's not too surprising it fell to such dramatic pieces.
Let's also consider the larger context. Simmons didn't just miss this game -- he has been out all season, and ESPN reported Sunday that Reid and Mahomes had to kick Simmons out of a meeting last Wednesday after frustrations boiled over. He has missed the entire season because of back issues, has recently been placed on injured reserve and missed time last season for personal reasons and a wrist injury. Rice has now missed 27 of the 43 games he could have played since the start of the 2024 season for injury or suspension. It's not just that the Chiefs' star receiver and early-drafted left tackle missed this past week -- it's that they've proven to be consistently unavailable. Meanwhile, Chiefs' first-round receiver Xavier Worthy dropped another pass in Week 7 as he continues to be unusable on most downfield routes.
This was a one-off in that the Chiefs were dramatically outmanned and should get some of these players back from the medical tent soon. But this was not a one-off in the sense that Rice, Simmons and Worthy are just unreliable players.
The Chiefs should clearly consider drastic measures. Undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson has played well enough in Simmons' absence that there's no need to make a big trade for a left tackle. But the need for a three-down receiver who can endure a large target volume and succeed at all three levels of the field is glaring. Worthy isn't even the best speed receiver on the team when Thornton is healthy, so I think Worthy should be dangled in trade packages as well -- he has more value in theory right now than he does in practice.
Whether the Chiefs actually will consider a big deadline trade is less clear. General manager Brett Veach has typically been active around the deadline, executing at least one in-season trade in five consecutive seasons from 2020 to 2024 before going quiet in 2025. The biggest such deal was the future third-round pick traded for Kadarius Toney in 2022. The Chiefs had just traded Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason and were looking for speed on offense. Toney didn't hit as a receiver, but he provided a big punt return in the Chiefs' Super Bowl victory that season.
This Chiefs team (5-1) is as well suited for a postseason run as that Chiefs team (5-2 at the time of the trade). Through seven weeks of the 2026 season, the Chiefs are fifth in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play. They are ninth in offensive points per drive and third in defensive points per drive. With an actual running game well in hand and a reinvigorated defense, this is as balanced of a Chiefs team as I can remember. They just need some more juice on offense.
ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported as such. From "The Pat McAfee Show" on Monday: "They have been calling around, and I don't think it would be a surprise to see them continue to attempt to add a wide receiver before the trade deadline."
I have five deadline deals for a receiver in mind. These are not sourced and were first written down on the back of a napkin. It's very likely the other teams in these hypotheticals would not even listen to deals for their wideouts. Do not yell at me on the internet about these trade proposals.
1. Send Worthy and a 2027 third-round pick to the Jaguars for Brian Thomas Jr.
Jacksonville benched Thomas in the second half of its Week 6 game. The only value the Jaguars were getting from him was theoretical field stretching -- Worthy can do much the same, and Mahomes and the Chiefs can give Thomas a chance to rediscover his 2024 form in a new zip code.
2. Send a 2027 third-round pick and 2028 conditional fifth-round pick to the Cowboys for George Pickens.
The Cowboys have 2025 trade acquisition Pickens and 2026 trade acquisition Joey Porter Jr. playing on contract years, and it's hard to imagine they extend both ex-Steelers at market rates. If Pickens would recoup a third-round compensatory pick in free agency, the Chiefs can sweeten the pot with a future pick conditional on production levels and give the Cowboys their third-round comp pick without having to manipulate the formula this offseason. How the Cowboys play in Weeks 8 and 9 (vs. Cardinals, at Colts) will have a big impact here.
3. Send a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Eagles for Dontayvion Wicks.
If I were the Chiefs, I'd be putting a first and then some on the table for DeVonta Smith. It absolutely would not work -- Eagles GM Howie Roseman isn't going to trade both A.J. Brown and Smith in the same season -- but you have to try as the Eagles stare down the barrel of a rebuild in 2027. In lieu of Smith, Wicks has all the traits of a three-level receiver -- ball tracking, ability to catch away from his frame, burst, size -- without any of the route or hands consistency. Grab him for a Day 3 pick and hope to run hot!
4. Send Worthy and a 2027 seventh-round pick to the Saints for Devaughn Vele and a 2027 sixth-round pick.
Before you laugh, that's tied-for-22nd-in-total-receptions Devaughn Vele to you! Vele is an entirely unexciting target, but he is also basically what the Chiefs need. He's a big-bodied receiver who can take a ton of contact and endure 10-plus-target games. He also makes good catches away from his frame and provides red zone value -- something the Chiefs' worryingly undersized receiver room has always failed to bring. With Jordyn Tyson coming back from a hamstring injury at some point and the Saints' season on life support, New Orleans can take the gamble on rehabilitating Worthy.
5. Send Worthy, a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 third-round pick to Jets for Garrett Wilson.
Of all the untouchable star receivers on losing football teams (Nico Collins on the 2-5 Texans, Smith on the 2-5 Eagles, etc.), Wilson is the one I can maybe see moving within the next two weeks. Jets GM Darren Mougey seems so secure in his reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer that the fanbase would forgive him for moving Wilson should the Jets fire Aaron Glenn and go scorched earth before the deadline. The one issue? The Jets are already loaded in the first round of the 2027 draft with two additional Day 1 picks. Does Mougey really need more capital? It's less than a 1% chance ... but greater than a 0% chance.
I think ... Kevin Stefanski should win Coach of the Year
Three coaches in NFL history have won the AP Coach of the Year award at least three times: Don Shula (3.5, as he shared a win in 1967), Bill Belichick (three) and Chuck Knox (three). I think Stefanski should become the fourth this season.
That's right. For those who forgot, Stefanski won Coach of the Year twice in his six-year tenure with the Browns. In 2020, his first season at the helm, Stefanski infused Baker Mayfield with hitherto unseen playmaking and went 11-5 -- heck, he even won a playoff game in Cleveland. Three years later, Stefanski's 2023 Browns went 11-6 despite splitting the regular season across five starting QBs (Deshaun Watson, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, PJ Walker, Jeff Driskel and Joe Flacco). If a leap year comes once every four years, then a Stefanski COTY win is an every-three-years event, because it's 2026 and the man is doing it again.
The Falcons are 3-4 through seven games with a big win over the previously undefeated 49ers this past Sunday. And when starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is active, they're 3-2. More impressive than the record is the quick evolution Penix has undergone under Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. For the previous two seasons under Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, Penix rarely left the pocket and aggressively pushed the ball downfield. He played quarterback much like a trebuchet might: He just sat there and launched the sucker.
Stefanski's offense has precipitated a different style of play from Penix, who is getting rid of the ball remarkably faster than he did in his first two seasons as a pro and operating closer to the line of scrimmage. Where Penix once never moved, he's now leading the league in designed rollout rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Coaches don't win awards because they successfully shepherd young quarterbacks to stylistic changes, but it's worth stating clearly that this is not easy to do. Most young QBs don't change their stripes. They might improve or decline, but they do so within the same play style. Bo Nix is playing the same style of ball in 2026 (while struggling) as he did in 2025 (while excelling). The same was true for Drake Maye from 2024 into 2025. Even Caleb Williams, who has undergone a serious metamorphosis under Ben Johnson, is mostly grafting skills onto the same existing base of a high-creativity play style.
That the Falcons have readily gotten Penix to think about football in a different fashion altogether is impressive. Doubly impressive is how Stefanski has this passing game operating in the context of his rushing attack. The Falcons, with Stefanski's longtime partner-in-crime Bill Callahan coaching the offensive line, have one of the league's best rushing attacks (sixth in rushing yards per game, 139.9), and they lean on it like no other. Since Penix returned to the starting lineup, no team has a higher called run rate than Atlanta (46.5%).
Surely the Falcons run a ton of play-action then, right? And they must hunt deep shots off that established run? Wrong. Penix has a 26.8% play-action rate on the season, 14th among league passers (league average is 24.6%). And on play-action dropbacks, he has a depth of target of 7.1 -- below the league average of 7.7.
Stefanski and Rees have been careful about giving Penix too much runway on play-action deep shots because of the QB's warts. He's a highly inconsistent player for downfield accuracy and particularly struggles when pressured. While play-action can slow down an effective pass rush, it can also quickly create protection busts. The quarterbacks who benefit the most from play-action are hyper-precise anticipation throwers who can quickly expose a linebacker one step out of alignment. Penix has that caliber of release speed and velocity but hugely lacks the necessary accuracy -- especially on downfield throws.
Instead, the Falcons use the boot game to get Penix free-access completions for yards after the catch instead of deep opportunities for explosives -- 53% of his yards have come after the catch this season, up from 47% in 2025 and 37% in 2024. Save for Bijan Robinson, the Falcons' pass catchers -- Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr., Jahan Dotson, Charlie Woerner, etc. -- aren't really known for their after-the-catch ability. This is all scheme, baby. When we remove running back targets, the disparity grows even more, as 47% of Penix's yards this season are from YAC, relative to 32% and 30% in the two previous seasons.
Stefanski won this award in 2020 for what he got from Mayfield and in 2023 for how he scrabbled together a quarterback room. Ideally, we would learn to give this award for reasons beyond quarterbacking. But here, Stefanski still wins. His running game is getting the best out of Robinson that we've ever seen. Stefanski retained incumbent defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and has reaped the rewards with an aggressive, high-pressure unit despite subpar talent. Stefanski is not a perfect fourth-down decision-maker or clock manager, but he's one of the league's better coaches in both fields.
Funny enough, if not Stefanski for the award, I'd like to see his successor in Cleveland win it. Todd Monken inherited Stefanski's team and has gotten big production out of young players. The Browns are 5-2 despite poor quarterback play. The co-excellence of Monken and Stefanski serves as a nice reminder that splits are sometimes necessary. Cleveland needed a new voice, and Stefanski needed a new room to speak in. Both parties are better off for their split.
The Falcons are well positioned in a weak NFC South to take a division title. Even with the 49ers' injuries considered, Atlanta has plenty of proof it can play with anyone in this league. Ending the season 10-7 with a home playoff game feels like the winning ticket. Whether or not that's enough for Stefanski to win his third Coach of the Year recognition, he deserves his flowers in this space. I love the job he's doing in Atlanta.
I think ... Jared Goff is the sleeper MVP nobody's talking about
The Lions are 4-2 after a 20-17 win over the Packers. It finally seemed like a manageable game for the Lions, rather than a desperate second-half sprint to keep pace with an opposing offense that the Detroit defense had no prayer of stopping. Detroit now hosts another division rival, the undefeated Vikings, with the potential to hand them their first loss and pull closer to pole position in the highly competitive NFC North. If the Lions win that game, they'll be 5-2 and the Vikings would be 6-1. And Goff likely would have had a good day against the vaunted Brian Flores defense.
Through six weeks, Goff has 150 completions on 223 attempts (67.3% completion rate). His passer rating of 112.5 is second only to Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. His total dropback EPA of 58.5 is just barely behind Josh Allen (58.6) for the league lead. He has thrown 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions, which ties 2019 Russell Wilson for the most touchdowns in a six-game, interception-free start to a season in NFL history.
That Goff hasn't thrown an interception despite how often the Lions have been stuck in shootout game scripts is eye-popping. He has also been one of the least-pressured quarterbacks (30.8%, fifth lowest among high-volume passers). At first, that sounds like a disqualifying characteristic for an MVP, but 49ers QB Brock Purdy has the lowest pressure rate and Allen is sixth. High-performing quarterbacks benefit from good pass protection and also make the sort of plays that mitigate pressures altogether.
This is where Goff has really impressed -- he's playing with an excellent rhythm. Here's a good example on a nice play design. The Lions bluff the screen to running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and Goff wants tight end Brock Wright (89) on the vertical. But a spiking defensive end collapses Goff's throwing platform. No biggie ... Goff resets with quick feet and dumps the ball to Gibbs instead of trying to force a late throw to Wright along the sideline.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
I love the rhythm and comfort with which Goff is playing this season -- this, more than anything, seems reminiscent of the Ben Johnson era and what was absent in the brief John Morton intermission last season. Drew Petzing and the improvements along the entire Lions offensive line have Goff playing with urgency but control -- comfort without laziness. Goff will never be an extended-play maven, and that lack of rushing production will always narrow his path to an MVP award. But on pure pass attempts -- no scrambles, no sacks, no nothing -- Goff has collected 82.2 EPA through six games. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is second at 59.6.
I took a quick peak at the MVP odds and found Goff eighth behind Allen (makes sense), Purdy (makes sense), Joe Burrow (makes sense), Lawrence (I agree), Mahomes (ehhh), Maye (probably not) and Williams (missed too many games). Goff has barely better odds than Packers quarterback Jordan Love despite the head-to-head win. The next closest player? Gibbs.
There's almost no shot that Gibbs wins the MVP over Goff if Detroit's season runs out with an NFC North title. The Lions are a fairly balanced offense (15th in overall pass rate, 11th in pass rate over expectation). For a running back to win the MVP over a quarterback, the production and talent disparity would have to be so obvious -- think Robinson vs. Penix -- that it would be a farce to select otherwise. Until proven otherwise, MVP is a quarterback award in the modern era.
Goff is far from a favorite at this stage, and rightfully so. Burrow is the one throwing the ball on every down, and the Bengals have the easiest schedule left. The AFC North, at least by record, is as competitive as the NFC North. If you're making me guess today who will actually win the award at the end of the season, I think I'd take Burrow.
But if the question is which player could emerge from the void of hype-less-ness and become a favorite by December, Goff seems like the obvious choice.
I think ... Jonah Coleman is coming to save the Broncos' offense
OK, that might be a little much. But hear me out.
The Broncos' rookie running back has the juice. On 19 carries this season, he's averaging 4.9 yards -- J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey are at 3.4 and 3.6, respectively. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Coleman has generated 17 more rushing yards than expected (Dobbins is at minus-77; Harvey is at minus-34) and has four more first downs than expected -- for a total of seven on just 19 carries!
Nine of those carries came in his Week 7 return from injury against the Cardinals (2-5); he had missed the past four weeks because of an ankle sprain. He had as many carries as Dobbins and Harvey combined and took 50% of the snaps overall (Dobbins at 21%; Harvey at 25%). Coleman added two catches on just six routes for a 11-touch, 69-yard day. Coach Sean Payton said, "Got to get him more touches."
I agree.
We've spent so much time worrying about quarterback Bo Nix and the passing game in Denver -- which, by the way, was far from fixed but also a little improved on Sunday -- that we've barely spoken about the running game. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Broncos were averaging 3.5 yards per carry on running back runs (fifth worst), and it didn't seem like the offensive line's fault. In fact, Broncos running backs were averaging 1.2 yards before contact per carry -- above the league average.
The Denver backs had 99 fewer rushing yards than expected per Next Gen Stats' modeling (third worst) because Harvey and Dobbins are incomplete players. Harvey lacks feel and vision behind an offensive line and is best used in space as a pass catcher. Dobbins, who has the ideal mental traits for a running back, lacks the athletic pop to actually make plays in tight spaces.
The lack of any running game hurt the overall health of the Broncos' offense, as there was nowhere to hide the passing game's struggles when the rushing attack also failed to carry its own weight. Denver has a good enough defense to win with a methodical philosophy on offense, but when Nix produces a haphazard outing, the running game has been incapable of steadying the offensive heartbeat.
It's never really good news when a fourth-round rookie returning from early-season injury is considered the bringer of stability to an offense -- Denver never should have let it get this far. But even before the injury, when Harvey and Dobbins were hurt in Week 2 against the Jaguars, Coleman salted the game away in the four-minute offense over veteran back Tyler Badie. It speaks to a level of trust that Payton has in him, and deservedly so. Coleman is quick in mind and in body -- he explodes into the hole and finishes through contact. He's no Bijan Robinson, but he's the best between-the-tackles ball carrier I've seen wear a Broncos uniform this season.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
Denver is hosting a rematch with the Chiefs on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). Remember, these two teams played Week 1 on "Monday Night Football" when we didn't yet know what we were getting from Kenneth Walker III and the new-look Chiefs offense. Now, Denver is 5-2 -- only a half-game back from the 5-1 Chiefs -- and needs to protect Nix from the high-pressure game plan that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo deployed the last time around. The best way to slow down the pass rush? Run the ball.
A reliable running game would go a long way as the Broncos continue figuring out how to insulate Nix and restore his confidence as a thrower -- a reliable and occasionally explosive running game would go twice as long. If Denver has an improved offensive performance against the Chiefs this week, many will cite Payton on the headset as the difference. But I won't be surprised if it's Coleman toting the rock that swings things the other way.
I think ... the Ravens' pass defense disqualifies them as a contender
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow had a perfect passer rating (158.3) in the second half against the Ravens on Sunday. He is the first quarterback since Josh Allen in the 2024 wild-card round to post a perfect passer rating in the second half (minimum 15 dropbacks). Burrow's success rate (88.9%, 16-of-18 on dropbacks) was the best since 2016 Dak Prescott in Week 11 against ... the Ravens.
It's spooky how often the Ravens find themselves on the wrong side of these stats. Baltimore's first three losses of the season have all come in games in which it once led by 10-plus points, making it the sixth team in NFL history to do that. The most recent is the 2022 Ravens.
In that the Ravens have surrendered three multiscore leads, I'm not venturing far into hyperbole when I say there's something wrong with their pass defense. In likely dropback situations -- that is, when leading in the second half -- a defense should be able to get to more exotic calls and rush the passer more ambitiously. According to Next Gen Stats, the Ravens are 29th in completion percentage surrendered (64.8%) and 26th in yards per attempt allowed (7.8) on plays with a pass probability of at least 75% (accounting for down-and-distance, score differential, etc.).
The issue is explicitly in coverage, not pass rush. Baltimore is getting enough pressure in obvious passing situations (42%, above league average) but is entirely unable to close on routes. On these obvious passing downs, 40% are thrown to "open" receivers with at least 3 yards of separation, the third-highest rate in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats charting.
Why can't the Ravens play stickier coverage? Well, they are a zone-heavy team under Jesse Minter, and they remain so in clear passing downs (61% zone coverage, 12th among defenses). Baltimore doesn't really have the personnel to play man coverage across the board. No. 2 cornerback Marlon Humphrey is 30 years old and doesn't have the same speed he once did. Behind him, the Ravens are cycling through options over the slot. Keyon Martin was the leading No. 3 corner with 14 snaps, taking the mantle from rookie Chandler Rivers, who was outsnapping him a few weeks ago.
Here's a third-and-3 in man coverage in the third quarter against Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore leaves top corner Nate Wiggins locked with Bengals receiver Tee Higgins to the top of the screen, and Wiggins aggressively plays the fade route, keeping upfield and outside positioning on Higgins. He's acting as if he has help inside -- but linebacker Roquan Smith immediately snaps his head to Bengals No. 1 receiver Ja'Marr Chase on the opposite side of the formation, and deep safety Kyle Hamilton is too far out of position to impact the catch point. First down to Higgins.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
Here's another man coverage snap -- this one in the red zone. Here, the Ravens explicitly double Chase with Humphrey and safety Malaki Starks. They aggressively gave Humphrey help in this game, a testament to their uncertainty around his play in matchups like this one. Hamilton ends up responsible for Higgins on the bender, and like Wiggins on the previous play, he gets aggressive outside positioning. Hamilton thinks he has help from someone -- maybe Smith down the hashes, Starks as a center-fielding safety -- but doesn't. It's another easy Higgins completion and leaves a frustrated trio of defenders talking things out in the end zone when the play is done.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
A healthy fear of Chase created serious spacing issues for Baltimore across the board. Watch the weight of Chase on the in-breaker pull linebacker Trenton Simpson deep downfield, which makes the quick checkdown to Erick All Jr. that much more profitable. And then one drive later, watch Chase on the same curl route pull defenders downhill and open up so much space for Higgins to break into the sideline behind him.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
It's tough to overly fault safety K'Von Wallace, who's in for the injured Jaylinn Hawkins and should not be nearly so far downfield here (though Hawkins himself has been a problem in space for much of the season). Hawkins and Starks have both been late to find routes in zone coverage and taken poor angles to get there. Wiggins has struggled with top receivers such as Higgins and the Falcons' Drake London. Hamilton missed a few tackles in this game and drew a costly defensive holding penalty -- his value is never going to be in his downfield coverage. And while Smith is a smart coverage linebacker, he lacks length and the size to impact the catch point, and his quickness is not what it once was.
The collective pool of coverage talent in Baltimore just doesn't move the needle. Were Wiggins a set-it-and-forget-it CB1 worth locking in man coverage on one side of the formation, things would be easier. He's not. Were Humphrey a veteran CB2 who could be trusted against elite receiver duos, things would be easier. He's not. So, when opposing offenses begin collecting dropbacks against Baltimore, they get many bites at a particularly juicy apple. Eventually, they hit on a couple of big plays, and the scoreboard evens.
I'm not sure where salvation comes for Baltimore. About 49% of my brain says Minter is a great defensive coach and the Ravens will become much, much tighter in their zones as the season goes on. Minter's defenses in Los Angeles were notoriously well connected and keyed in on tendency, but the Ravens' group has been the opposite through seven weeks. Those tides can change.
But 51% of my brain says their talent just isn't good enough to make a playoff run through some trio of Allen, Burrow, Drake Maye, Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. More time together under Minter will help clean up some spacing issues -- they'll be much better the next time they play the Bengals, I'm sure -- but too many players are making too many mistakes for me to believe in the healing magic of friendship and communication. If the Ravens have to man up anybody right now ... I'm probably picking the other guys to win the down.
The trade deadline is in two weeks, and Minter's old Chargers (who are 0-6) might end up dealing some players. Keep an eye on safety Elijah Molden and cornerback Donte Jackson.
I think ... Riley Leonard will be starting by Week 10
There is no distant rumble on the horizon that more obviously anticipates a quarterback benching than a head coach insisting that no benching is imminent. Asked by reporters for the second consecutive week whether Daniel Jones is still the starting quarterback in Indianapolis, coach Shane Steichen reiterated that, yes, Jones is still the starter.
Here's the thing: Jones wasn't particularly bad on Sunday against the 6-0 Vikings -- at least, not on the scale of his recent play and the expectations for a quarterback going up against Brian Flores' league-leading defense. To be clear, he absolutely was bad -- 13-for-22, 108 yards, an interception, four sacks -- but just not much worse than could be expected.
That, of course, is the problem.
Steichen called a sterilized game Sunday, treating his quarterback less like a trusted playmaker and more like a radioactive isotope. Indianapolis ran the ball heavily -- the Colts had a pass rate over expectation of minus-17.5%, the second-lowest mark of the past two years. Despite all the run-action, the Colts offense went play-action on only 14.8% of their pass attempts, the lowest of any Jones start. This game was equivalent in game plan to the 2025 Philip Rivers start against the Seahawks (minus-23.5% pass rate over expectation; 7.1% play-action rate) -- that's the current esteem to which Steichen holds Jones. He's playing him like 43-year-old Philip Rivers.
Instead, it was all quick game, with one- and three-stop drops in the hope that Jones would get the ball out quickly and avoid the Vikings' ferocious pressure package altogether. Of course, Jones had a few snaps of timely delivery and pristine placement. He also tried to throw two first-half picks and actually did the deed in the fourth quarter. Point-and-shoot quarterbacking rarely works, even for veteran supercomputers such as Rivers. For Jones, a bulky body with good mobility (he still looks spry enough off the Achilles injury) whose career has been more about aggressive throws in the face of pressure ... it was not a winning formula.
Of course, it's not just Jones. The passing attack is absent tight end Tyler Warren and receiver Alec Pierce. No quarterback feels good up against an elite defense in 2026 when Laquon Treadwell and Keenan Allen are running a majority of the routes. Earlier, I excused the Chiefs for their own terrible offensive performance vs. the Seahawks and advocated for wide receiver trades before any larger Patrick Mahomes judgments could be made. I extend that same grace to Jones and the Colts, who are a better passing attack than their 4.9 yards per attempt and minus-0.15 EPA per dropback on Sunday imply.
With the necessary caveats made ... the Colts are going to have to bench Jones. As the 2-5 team stares down a road game in Jacksonville in Week 8, it's looking at the last domino before a full-scale teardown starts in Indianapolis. DeForest Buckner, Cam Bynum, Grover Stewart, Quenton Nelson, Josh Downs, Jonathan Taylor ... there are plenty of quality Colts players worth trading at the deadline.
As Indianapolis punts on 2026 and looks to 2027, figuring out what it has -- if anything -- in its two young backup quarterbacks is critical. The Colts do not have their first-round pick in the 2027 draft -- that belongs to the Jets via the Sauce Gardner trade -- and cannot reasonably consider drafting a potential starter until 2028. Finding a bridge quarterback is high on the laundry list for 2026 objectives should their season functionally end in Jacksonville next week -- a bridge quarterback cheaper than Jones' $46.8 million cap hit in 2027.
A few weeks ago, I predicted we'd see Anthony Richardson Sr. at some point -- he has been dressing as the Colts' No. 2 quarterback with second-year pro Leonard available as the emergency No. 3. Since that prediction, Richardson faces a misdemeanor charge for marijuana possession following a traffic stop earlier this month. While he faces no imminent punishment from the league -- the legal process has yet to play out -- this is the sort of error that shakes up a QB2 depth chart.
Who truly knows what Richardson is capable of after a one-in-a-million eye injury ended his 2025 season during pregame warmups in October? While Richardson has more NFL experience than Leonard by years, he has started only 15 games (Leonard has one), and they're the same age (24). Leonard has the advantage of extra contract years as the Colts look for a bridge starter in 2027; he has two additional seasons of team control after this one, and Richardson is a 2027 free agent.
Either option is a defensible choice, and I demand half-credit for this prediction if the Colts pull Jones for Richardson after their Week 9 game against the Cowboys. I'd lean Leonard because a good Richardson season creates a weird contract decision this offseason. No matter what, if the Colts start dealing assets in the next couple of weeks, I expect a quarterback change to swiftly follow.
I think ... about Bryce Young, but I don't know anything
We're 3½ years into Young's career, and I still don't know exactly how good this guy is. There is no individual player in the league, let alone quarterback, who confounds me the way Bryce Young confounds me. Who are you?!
Let's take the widest view then funnel in. Since 2024 (I'm throwing out 2023 because it was a disastrous season under Frank Reich), Young is one of 31 quarterbacks with at least 600 dropbacks. He is 25th in EPA per dropback and 28th in dropback success rate (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward and Joe Flacco are worse). He is 28th in completion percentage and 30th in off-target percentage (only Caleb Williams is worse, and he's going to catch up to Young pretty quickly here).
I think it's easy for people to forget just how bad Young has been on a large sample -- remember, we eliminated his terrible 2023 rookie season. And unlike a lot of the young quarterbacks who have shaky numbers over the past few seasons -- Ward, Tyler Shough, Jayden Daniels, etc. -- Young's bad statistical output is not the result of terrible negative plays drawing his performance down. He is around league average for interception rate and sack rate. The average Young pass just isn't all that valuable. It is not completed often enough, and when it is completed, it doesn't generate enough yardage. It's as simple as that.
Now let's narrow things. We don't really care how Caleb Williams produced in 2024, and for good reason -- he's clearly a different guy than he was then. Drake Maye is different. Justin Herbert is different. The NFL stands for Not For Long; it's concerned only with what you've done lately. So, let's push aside past seasons and take a look at Young's 2026 progress report.
Panthers coach Dave Canales gave offensive coordinator Brad Idzik playcalling responsibilities this season, and there has been a boost in the Panthers' offense accordingly. The second season of reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan and the third year of Jalen Coker opposite him helps, too. Through seven weeks of the season, Young is still 30th in completion percentage and 33rd in off-target rate among 34 quarterbacks ... but he's balancing the scales with bigger throws. Young is seventh in air yards per attempt, a new single-season best for him. He's 11th in explosive pass rate and 12th in first down/touchdown per dropback rate.
The chief change in the Panthers' offense under Idzik? Carolina is not doing too much schematically different, but it has changed the proportions in which it has asked Young to do what he does. When Canales first came to Carolina, the Panthers wanted Young to be a spread-n-shred point guard. In 2024, 22.4% of his dropbacks were in empty formations, then 18.3% in 2025. This season, it's down to 12.8%. As empty has dropped, under center has risen (13.1% to 14.6% to 19.2%) and play-action has followed (22.2% to 25.2% to 27.6%).
The abandonment of empty is particularly interesting when we look at what has replaced it. The Panthers hired Darrell Bevell this offseason as an associate head coach. For the past four years, he served as Mike McDaniel's quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator in Miami. A huge part of the Panthers' playbook has suddenly become extremely McDaniel-inspired. The Panthers, much like the Dolphins did with Tua Tagovailoa, are weaponizing Young's lightning-quick release and strong pre-snap processing to hit easy-access RPOs.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 27, 2026
The fact that Young is experiencing a production bump while enjoying the same dusting of McDaniel magic dust that once inflated Tagovailoa's output is ... suspicious. But Young has something that Tagovailoa never had: the ability to make plays under pressure.
Young's career numbers don't stack up well on all dropbacks, but on pressured dropbacks (again since 2024) he has always had a knack for playmaking without inviting great disaster. Here's that same table from above, but only on pressured dropbacks. Over the past three seasons, Young is now 11th in dropback success rate, 11th in explosive pass rate and 15th in EPA per dropback. Notice again that his sack rate and interception rate remain low relative to his peers.
These are my favorite traits of Young's -- his twitch, his poise and his creativity. It's especially notable in the red zone, where Young flits in and out of tight spaces to manipulate defenders and break coverages. He doesn't make the same truly elite plays out of structure that Josh Allen, Williams and Patrick Mahomes do -- he lacks the arm strength and the physical bulk -- but he is in the tier below.
Young has played well under pressure over a multi-season sample, so he should -- with an improvement to the base offense around him -- be able to sustain a solid passing attack and respectable NFL offense. We've seen it in flashes this season, and we said that last year, too. But it's never consistent and never strung together for more than three consecutive games. Sunday's 43-13 disaster against the Buccaneers was far from Young's fault -- the defense was embarrassed and his offensive line had its worst game of the season against the Bucs' deep stable of powerful rushers -- but Young certainly didn't help. He was erratic and late, as he often is when he gets jittery in the pocket after several hits.
The Panthers are 3-3 and, in theory, in the driver's seat in the NFC South. They have an enormous game at the Packers on Thursday night. Remember, they won at Lambeau Field last season as 13-point underdogs. If Carolina can run the ball well and play deep zone coverages that force Jordan Love to check down the football -- and Green Bay's terrible rushing attack continues -- it has a clear avenue to victory.
The Panthers are capable of beating the Packers and most other contenders on any given Sunday. But they're also capable of losing in dramatic fashion to the one-win Buccaneers. And that's because their quarterback remains a mystery bag even now, 50 starts into his NFL career. I know he's getting better, but I'm not sure he's getting better enough fast enough. I know he can make plays under pressure, but I'm not sure he makes enough big ones. I have one job (literally, this is my job), and I still can't figure out what to do about Bryce Young.
Four things I might think
I might think ... the Buccaneers are back. Tampa Bay has a defensive line full of buttkickers who fold in the pocket on every passing down and a pair of lights-out corners on the outside who can challenge anyone in man-to-man situations. The Buccaneers' defense looked like what I long believed it could Sunday against the Panthers.
I might think ... Tee Higgins is the 11th-best receiver in football. In no particular order: Ja'Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson. Those are the 10 better than Tee. Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are with him in that next tier.
I might think ... Houston still isn't out of it. Pull a string on my back and I say "Houston's advanced metrics are still pretty good!" Even with the travel back from London, the lookahead to the bye week and the hot game by Giants QB J.J. McCarthy all considered ... it's very embarrassing to lose to the Giants. Still, Houston can go from 2-5 to 5-5 pretty quick. Their next three opponents are at the Chargers (0-6), at the Browns (5-2) and against the Colts (2-5).
I might think ... 18 is a powerful number. The Saints had 18 team rushing yards on 17 carries against the Steelers. Rookie receiver Cyrus Allen led all Chiefs wide receivers with 18 receiving yards vs. the Seahawks. You tell me which stat is more pitiful. (J.J. McCarthy also wears 18 now, and he's twice the man "Nine" ever was).