Four big questions about Gregg Berhalter's USMNT before 2022 World Cup

On Nov. 21, barely more than one month from now, the U.S. men's national team will play their first World Cup game in almost 8½ years. Thank goodness. More than 1,600 days passed between when the Americans were eliminated from World Cup qualification in 2018 and when they clinched this time around, and now more than 200 days have passed since qualification. After the longest wait ever between World Cups, it's just about here. Ready or not.

National team coaches are signed with World Cup cycles in mind, and U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter's contract is scheduled to end in the weeks after the tournament in Qatar. His first year was spent fiddling with lineups and getting looks at as many players as possible, and his second was almost nonexistent due to COVID stoppages. His third was a roller coaster of injuries, a trio of wins over Mexico and a bumpy and frustrating early crawl through qualification. His fourth included qualification and a summer (and early fall) of listlessness.

Optimism has waxed and waned, as has faith in the job Berhalter is doing. But as we enter the valedictory stage of this eight-year drought, here are four questions I still have about Berhalter, his team and the massive tournament ahead.

How have the U.S. done under Berhalter?

To start answering that question, let's step back and answer a broader question: How have the U.S. done, period?

The national team is currently 16th in the FIFA rankings and 24th in the more predictive ratings at EloRatings.net. Here's a quick chart of how that compares to its year-end rankings going back to 1994, the year the U.S. hosted the World Cup.

Considering the country's interest in soccer has grown, and considering its investment in soccer has grown -- perhaps most notably through the increased investment in MLS academies and leagues below MLS -- the U.S. hasn't really improved its overall standing in world soccer since its initial post-1994 surge. Its golden era in both sets of ratings began in about 2000, picked up steam in 2002 and petered out around 2005. Since then, the U.S. has been immersed in almost identical cycles.

The U.S. averaged a year-end ranking of 13th in the two ratings above in 2005, but they had fallen to an average of 28th the next year, when Bruce Arena's managerial contract was allowed to expire. Three years later, in 2009, they were back to an average of 16th under Bob Bradley, but they had fallen to an average of 35th two years when he was fired in 2011.

These cycles continued under Jurgen Klinsmann: They were back to within sniffing distance of the top 10 in 2013 but had fallen back into the 30s when he was fired in 2016. And after a couple of stagnant years at the start of the Berhalter era -- thanks in part to a lack of opportunities during the COVID year of 2020 -- they had surged right back to the high teens in 2021 before slipping to a current average of 20th.

We head into the World Cup, then, at a massive pivot point. A solid showing at the World Cup* would likely bump the U.S. back up and mark the first time since 2004-05 that they averaged a ranking in the teens at the end of two consecutive years. With so much of the core roster still years from reaching its peak, this would paint an awfully optimistic picture of the years ahead.

*How would we define a "solid" showing, by the way? Considering that EloRatings.net rates the U.S. (24th), Iran (21st) and Wales (26th) almost equally at the moment, "solid" would probably require advancement to the knockout rounds and the avoidance of a blowout against England and/or a round-of-16 opponent.

A lesser showing in Qatar, meanwhile, would mean that the Berhalter era's trajectory would mirror that of both the Klinsmann and Bradley eras in a lot of ways.

So let's go back to the original question: How has Berhalter done thus far? The same as just about any recent U.S. coach, it appears. But based on how Americans have been performing at the club level, one could make the case that he's achieved approximately the same results with a more talented, if less experienced, squad. When the U.S. reached the World Cup quarterfinals, they did so with a squad featuring seven players who were playing for a team in one of Europe's big five leagues. This year's World Cup squad will have 12-14 such players.

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Granted, some of the team's most talented players have struggled with injury; here's where I once again note that Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest have played together in the same U.S. match just once -- ever. But with greater depth of options, a three-and-out appearance at the World Cup -- especially with what might actually be a reasonably healthy squad -- would still reflect poorly on Berhalter's overall performance.

Is it fair that after four years and 56 matches in charge, Berhalter will be evaluated almost entirely by a three- to five-match swing at the end of the fourth year? Almost certainly. Is that way it works in international soccer? Absolutely. Put another way, the World Cup is the final exam at the end of the semester.