Who's ready to put their thinking caps on? Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season will go down in the history books, as 12 -- count 'em, 12! -- Sunday games finished within one score, the new single-day record for the league. Toss in two fun primetime games on Thursday and Monday and that was about as good a week as NFL football gets.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions; those come later. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.
This week, I'll start with the one player I've been most excited to see in his new system, make another pick for MVP (I'm up to two in three weeks) and highlight an intradivisional game between surprising 2-1 teams you should probably watch for fun. Here are seven things I think ahead of Week 4.
Jump to:
Bowers is the new JSN
Jackson for league MVP
Lawrence reminds us to be patient with QBs
Rams should make one more trade
Steelers-Browns is suddenly important
I will never trust the Bills
McCarthy won't save the Giants
Five extra inklings
I think ... Brock Bowers is the new Jaxon Smith-Njigba
We had to wait a few extra weeks for it, but one of the most anticipated debuts of the 2026 season struck Sunday. Bowers, the third-year Raiders tight end fresh off a meniscus cleanup, took his first snaps in Klint Kubiak's offense against the Saints. The final card? Ten catches, 116 yards and a score. Bowers has four career games of 10-plus receptions, 100-plus yards and a touchdown. Since he entered the league in 2024, the rest of the NFL's tight ends combined have only four such games.
So, he picked up where he left off.
Watching Bowers is such a delight. He has receiver-like instincts and catch technique. He has receiver-like movement skills. He can run receiver-esque routes -- routes other coaches wouldn't think to ask of their tight ends.
Now, you've likely heard other tight ends erroneously called "quasi-wide receivers." Analysts were obsessed with flex tight ends in the prime of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, so we started throwing the label around willy-nilly. It's important, in our appreciation of what Bowers brings to the Raiders' offense, to be objective about the uniqueness of his impact.
Think of a smaller pass-catching tight end who's having a productive year: Dalton Kincaid with the Bills has been a breakout star. Against the Lions in Week 2, Kincaid had seven targets from traditional wide receiver alignments -- either in the slot or wide -- which was one of the highest among all tight ends this season. Arizona's Trey McBride, the league's preeminent move tight end, had 10 such targets against the Seahawks in Week 2 and the Chargers in Week 1.
Bowers had 13 on Sunday against the Saints. In fact, all 13 of his targets were from slot or wide alignments. It's the most such targets a tight end has seen in the past three seasons. Specifically out wide, Bowers was targeted eight times, which ties the most out-wide targets a tight end has had since the 2016 season -- as far back as I have alignment data. He caught six passes out wide ... which ties the most out-wide receptions a tight end has had since the 2016 season.
That is wide receiver usage. The Raiders were in "multi-tight-end" sets on 81% of their snaps Sunday -- the highest rate for any team in a game this season -- because they're not actually multi-tight-end sets. It's really 11.5 personnel, because they have the skeleton key in Bowers.
Let's see what this looks like in practice. On a key third down late in the third quarter of Sunday's win, the Raiders isolate Bowers on the backside by motioning to a four-strong formation. With all four receivers to the opposite side of the field, the Saints' hands are tied -- they have to play Bowers in man coverage with their best man corner, Kool-Aid McKinstry. Watch Bowers feint the slant, and when McKinstry doesn't bite, he bursts to McKinstry's upfield shoulder to threaten the go-ball and open up space for the back-shoulder throw. It's short, because Kirk Cousins underappreciated Bowers' speed, and Bowers makes a great adjustment for the first down.
4x1 forces man coverage backside. Bowers v. Kool-Aid McKinstry.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 28, 2026
Look at Bowers' burst to McKinstry's upfield shoulder after the release move fails to move the CB. Gets enough upfield threat to open space for the back shoulder ball.
Good player good player good player good pla https://t.co/hl5U2b4ShZ pic.twitter.com/D1NB2wwT7s
This is obviously super-duper sick. For most teams, a tight end in isolation on a cornerback is not a win -- for the Raiders, it is.
What's particularly cool is that Kubiak wants to give these opportunities to Bowers over anyone else on the Raiders' roster. When Kubiak was the Seahawks' offensive coordinator last season, that player for him was star receiver Smith-Njigba. We see almost the exact same play here, in the Seahawks' 2025 Week 7 game against the Texans. Sam Darnold alerts to the man coverage on the backside and throws Smith-Njigba on the vertical route against press coverage, keeping the ball vertical instead of throwing it to the back shoulder given the positioning of the corner.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
This is far from the only example we can find of Bowers getting the JSN treatment from Kubiak. Again in isolation on the backside of the formation and again on third down, Bowers uses his reduced alignment to get into an out-breaking route at the sticks. Smith-Njigba was used on similar routes in similar alignments for Kubiak on money downs last season.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
Here, Bowers motions into a stack alignment to get a free release into an option route -- look at how easily he widens McKinstry before snapping back into space. He has special burst and body control for a tight end, much as Smith-Njigba has special burst and body control for a wide receiver. Smith-Njigba takes the option route the other direction, but the usage is the same.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
That Kubiak is giving Bowers the same plays he gave Smith-Njigba is important because Smith-Njigba was as high volume a receiver as we had seen in decades. Smith-Njigba had a preposterous 44.1% of the Seahawks' receiving yards and 35.9% of the Seahawks' targets through the 2025 season -- the highest share of a team's receiving production since Brandon Marshall with the 2012 Chicago Bears. In one game, Bowers had 46.8% of the team's receiving yards and 41.9% of the team's targets. That's Smith-Njigba usage and Smith-Njigba volume.
Of course, because Bowers is a tight end, he won't get the same explosive opportunities that Smith-Njigba got down the field. JSN had a heavy dose of crossing patterns that Bowers largely didn't see in Week 3 -- those are big-play run-after-catch chances of play-action. Smith-Njigba could also outrun a corner for a 50-yard vertical, and Bowers isn't doing that.
But what he is doing, we haven't seen at the tight end position since peak Kelce -- fitting, given the Raiders (3-0) face the Chiefs (3-0) in Week 4. Bowers now has two career games with at least six targets or at least five receptions from wide alignments -- games we could reasonably call "high volume" games on the outside. He is only 30 games into his NFL career. Kelce has played in 168 games since 2016. If Bowers' Week 3 usage keeps up, he'll join prime Kelce as the lone tight end of this era who lines up on the outside and wins, over and over again.
It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs handle this. Through three weeks, they have played two teams without a strong tight end feature -- the Broncos (2-1) and the Dolphins (0-3), with the Colts (1-2) and Tyler Warren sandwiched there in the middle. Warren went for 21 yards on six catches (seven targets) against the Chiefs, as the Colts have devolved into targeting him shallow on designed touches to protect the recovering Daniel Jones from long dropbacks. Bowers will be the Chiefs' first real tight end test.
Now, Bowers isn't always going to have an 80% target rate on his out-wide alignments -- the Saints' corners were playing too far off Bowers to start the game. He isn't always going to catch and win all those isolation routes, either. But I imagine we're only at the top of Kubiak's bag with Bowers. Kubiak's greatest wizardry, among his many achievements in 2025, was how he stayed ahead of defensive adjustments and always found a way to manufacture opportunities for Smith-Njigba. It's time to see whether he can encore that performance with his star tight end.
I think ... Lamar Jackson is the league MVP
Two weeks ago, I thought Trevor Lawrence was the league MVP. Do I still think that? Yep. Jackson is, too. I get to have multiple MVPs. We're just off Week 3, which means there should be 17 MVPs so far. It's also my column, and I'll do what I want.
Anyway, here's the Ravens' go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys on Sunday, which put Baltimore up 31-28 with 1:30 left. It's an easily forgotten play given the Cowboys' ensuing score, then the remarkable last-second win by the Ravens -- but it's important. Offensive coordinator Declan Doyle dialed up a nice snag concept from three tight ends in the low red zone, and he gets a bust from the Cowboys' defense. Two defenders run with rookie tight end Josh Cuevas (No. 85), leaving fellow rookie tight end Matthew Hibner (No. 88) open on the snag route for just a moment.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
Only ... he's not open. Linebacker Jaishawn Barham (No. 55), who initially looked to be pressuring, is lurking off the line of scrimmage and ready to pounce on the ball. If Jackson throws this ball fast to Hibner, who appears to be open, Barham has a great chance to pluck it out of the air and end the game.
So Jackson gives the slightest little pump, and while pumping, pulls Barham a little further toward Hibner. There's a free rusher in Jackson's face, but the threat of the QB's escapability delays the rush. Now he can reload quickly (Jackson's pump fakes are particularly devastating because he has a compact release and can get out of his pumps wicked fast) and throw a softball over Barham while pulling Hibner away from coverage.
This play looks so easy and so simple -- but only because Jackson makes it so. At times his calm, almost lackadaisical style generates some devastating turnovers. But it also allows him to create throws like this -- Hibner is rarely the primary target on this play -- with his unique blend of dual-threat ability, arm talent and coverage recognition. This is a special play masquerading as a routine one.
Jackson was predictably effective against a banged-up Cowboys secondary, and any argument against his MVP candidacy would highlight that two of the three defenses he has played (Colts and Cowboys) are particularly poor units. That's fine. I'd be quick to point out that Zay Flowers was available for only 15 routes against the Cowboys, and the Ravens have filled his absence with players such as Devontez Walker and Chris Moore. Receiver depth is killing them, and still Jackson is making the passing game work with Rashod Bateman and an aging Mark Andrews.
I'd also point out that the Ravens were on their third center in this game -- rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane had to kick inside and snap following injuries to Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic -- and that the Ravens' short-yardage rushing attack, which should be a strength of a team featuring Derrick Henry, continues to fail them in key moments. Henry was stuffed on two fourth-and-1 runs in this game and took a tackle for loss on a third-and-1 that forced a punt. Let's not even start on the defense, which is allowing 3.1 points per drive in the second half (tied for fifth worst in the league).
Jackson is holding together an offense that is predictably volatile in its first three games of a complex Doyle system. Jackson is accounting for serious personnel deficiencies on the interior and at pass catcher. This is what elite quarterbacks do, and it's what MVPs do.
The Ravens (2-1) have a reasonable upcoming schedule -- vs. Titans, at Falcons, at Browns -- to iron out their operational wrinkles. Coach Jesse Minter projected long-term absences for both Gwyn (ankle) and Pocic (knee), leaving Baltimore scrambling for a center or guard solution. Will the team trade for Jake Andrews or Garrett Bradbury? Or maybe sign Kevin Zeitler and kick Ioane in to center for the long term? All of the solutions are imperfect and will require time to jell.
Things get serious with games vs. the Bengals, at the Bills and vs. the Jaguars. That run might put Jackson up against Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lawrence -- three other AFC quarterbacks who might have serious MVP résumés by that time. These head-to-head matchups will have big ripple effects not just on conference playoff seeding but on the race for football's biggest individual award.
I think ... Trevor Lawrence is the ultimate reminder of quarterback patience
I implored you in this very column last week to chill out about Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. He rewarded me with three of the worst decisions I've ever seen him make. Nice call!
In the same column, I listed everything I found wrong and offensive about the Chargers -- Justin Herbert included. In Week 3, the defense took the ball away from the Bills five times and the Chargers still lost for all the reasons I listed last week -- Herbert, once again, included. His pick in the end zone to C.J. Gardner-Johnson is more problematic to me than Maye's pick to Travis Hunter ... but only just.
What do we do about this? Two Terminator quarterbacks -- huge frames, big arms, supercomputer processing, deadly accurate and tough as steel -- are collapsing into piles of nuts and bolts (I've never seen the Terminator movies, I don't know what they're actually made of) before our eyes. How do we parse this?
First, we need to remember that development is not linear. The greatest annual truth in the NFL is that players don't get progressively better or worse in discrete fashion. The temptation, after Maye's tremendous Year 2, is to expect him to keep getting better in Year 3 because that's what young quarterbacks typically do between Years 2 and 3.
But quarterbacks change like the weather. It will get colder across the end of September and into October, then again across November and December. But the temperature doesn't fall by a degree a day. There are unseasonably warm weeks. There are nippy mornings and sunny afternoons. The trend is better appreciated through the wider lenses of weeks and months.
Let me give you a counterexample to Herbert and Maye: Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars quarterback is a helpful analog to Maye and Herbert because the three are quite similar stylistically. All have big frames and prefer to stay in the pocket to make aggressive throws. All have made more hay in their careers hitting tougher downfield windows than peppering underneath options. All can withstand contact, break the pocket and create with their legs. Since Maye entered the league as a rookie in 2024, all three quarterbacks are among the top 10 quarterbacks in air yards to the sticks and among the bottom 10 in the rate of their throws behind the line of scrimmage.
Lawrence is a fire-breathing dragon right now. He shoots from the hip, ripping his first read into tight coverage windows with the arm arrogance of Brett Favre. Since Week 9 of last season -- after the Jaguars' bye and midseason acquisition of receiver Jakobi Meyers -- Lawrence leads the league in the percentage of his throws that are at least 10 yards downfield (42.1%). This sort of play style invites high peaks and low valleys -- more so than with quarterbacks such as Joe Burrow or Bo Nix or Jared Goff, who are all more willing to take what is given by the defense. This is not a commentary on who is better. It's about how they play.
Lawrence has found supporting contributors to sustain his peaks and minimize his valleys. Star wide receiver Parker Washington has preposterous play strength and a wonderful catch radius. Just look at this touchdown from the Jaguars' drubbing of the Patriots on Sunday -- a silly snag.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
In second-year head coach Liam Coen, Lawrence has found a play designer who is not just adept at getting him good pre-snap keys with motion and formation. Coen's excellent screen game and deep bag of tricky run concepts gives the Jaguars' offense that steady heartbeat it desperately needs; it creates the 5-, 6-yard gains necessary to stay on track and protect field position, such that Lawrence can be the big-armed playmaker he's already predisposed to be.
Lawrence's play style hasn't changed much over the years, but his effectiveness has, and it has much to do with his environment. Take just last season: To start 2025, the Jaguars were an operational mess that rivaled that of the 2026 Chargers, and they had personnel issues that rivaled that of the 2026 Patriots.
Through three weeks, the 2025 Jaguars led the league with 21 offensive penalties; the 2026 Chargers lead the league currently with 20. Receiver Brian Thomas Jr. led the 2025 Jaguars with 109 routes and 25 targets through three weeks (somehow with only seven catches) -- behind him on the receiver depth chart was Hunter (80 routes) and Dyami Brown (78). Through three weeks, in the absence of A.J. Brown, the 2026 Patriots' leading target getters are Mack Hollins (16), DeMario Douglas (14) and Romeo Doubs (11), the free agent addition who has failed to contribute as expected for his giant contract.
I would argue that quarterbacks coded like Lawrence, Herbert and Maye -- more willing to trust their arm, test coverage, put all of their chips on one big bet -- are more obviously affected by circumstance than the more cautious quarterbacks. They already want to hang in the pocket, so when their bad offensive lines fail, they're late to escape and collect too many hits. They want to make tight-window throws, so when they play with poor receivers rooms, they're asking imperfect players to make high-difficulty plays.
Perhaps it's not play style but pigheadedness. Herbert, Maye, Lawrence ... they're all stubborn. They don't adjust their internal clock as quickly as other quarterbacks do. They don't hasten to get the ball to the checkdown when their downfield receivers are losing and accordingly minimize yards after catch. Risk management is a legitimate skill for quarterbacks -- one that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have learned well over their ascension into elite quarterback status. They started their careers as flamethrowers and have learned (to varying degrees) how to play more methodical ball. Maybe Maye and Herbert will learn that lesson this season, and when they do, their play will suddenly improve. Remember, development is not linear.
It's easy to forget our old opinions of Lawrence now that we have new opinions to form about Maye and Herbert. A year from now, we'll likely forget how we felt about Herbert and Maye in favor of a new C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love or Caleb Williams or Bryce Young or Tyler Shough take. There are so many young quarterbacks and so many conclusions to draw from such small samples.
Our eagerness to react to the next game limits our ability to see the forest for the trees. To see the totality of a quarterback beyond his most recent stat sheet. It's why I always chuckle when someone demands I admit that [insert quarterback here] is good/bad after his most recent game seemingly proves me wrong. Do you really want me to change my whole opinion on a player after just one game?
Herbert and Maye are far from the only quarterbacks with shaky early-season performances. Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield ... even players such as Burrow and Matthew Stafford have been below form. Let's all take a collective breath and remember not to etch conclusions in September stone.
I think ... the Rams should make one more trade
Just one more trade, then we're done. Really.
Much like when I begged my mother for one more battle of Super Smash Bros. Melee on the GameCube when I was 9 (I mained Link), quarterback Matthew Stafford should be imploring GM Les Snead for one more trade. The defense had all the offseason fun, acquiring Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett for the low cost of two first-round picks, a second-round pick, a third-round pick, a fifth-round pick, a sixth-round pick, a seventh-round pick and Jared Verse. When is the offense's turn?
Editor's note: Technically the Rams traded for receiver Tutu Atwell, as well, but that's not really fun, is it?
Despite the fact that the Rams traded almost an entire year's worth of picks for two players, they're still in a position at which one more trade makes sense: specifically, for a pass catcher.
Los Angeles dressed five tight ends and four receivers Sunday in the absence of star receiver Puka Nacua and were treated with another turn-back-the-clock performance by Davante Adams: seven catches for 137 yards. Combined with his 195 yards from the Rams' Week 2 "Monday Night Football" win, Adams has 332 receiving yards over the past two weeks -- the most he has ever had in a two-game span in his career.
Despite how cool it has been to see Adams reach unprecedented levels ... the Rams cannot live like this. Adams is a 33-year-old receiver who finished last season hobbled with a hamstring injury. Now he's seeing No. 1 receiver volume thanks in part to the lack of receiver depth behind him (Jordan Whittington, Atwell and Xavier Smith were nonfactors against the Broncos). The rise of Konata Mumpfield, who scored a touchdown Sunday night, is commendable but not something to be relied upon.
What's the big deal? Nacua will come back from his hip injury, surely -- the Rams are reportedly being cautious with him because of his importance to the offense. But now both Nacua and Adams require careful maintenance for their usage and health. The rise of second-year tight end Terrance Ferguson, who was supposed to emerge as a quality third target ... is also impeded by an ankle injury of uncertain severity. He left, came back and left again against the Broncos in Week 3.
No team is well equipped to handle injuries to star players, but the Rams are particularly susceptible at receiver. They funnel targets to Nacua at league-leading rates and have now done so to Adams in his absence. The No. 3 receiver and lower spots on this team are reserved more for blocking and special teams value. Even adjusting for Sean McVay's ability to scheme it up, a big injury after the trade deadline won't be easily backfilled with internal options.
So where to look? The Rams aren't the team that should kick the tires on a discontented first-round pick such as Marvin Harrison Jr. or Quentin Johnston -- they need a steady producer who can eat volume if needed. Chris Godwin Jr. might get out of Tampa Bay as the 0-3 Buccaneers pivot to younger players. Could Courtland Sutton be available from the Broncos, who are moving to a bigger diet of Jaylen Waddle and Pat Bryant? Do the Bills need both Joshua Palmer and Keon Coleman?
If this seems excessive, it should -- and that's good. The Rams are in for a penny, and the most obvious route to getting in for a pound -- if they're not already -- is by buttressing the depth at pass catcher. It's not the reason the Rams are 1-2 right now, but now that their margins for losing games are much smaller, it's a potential hot spot that must be addressed preventatively.
I think ... Steelers-Browns is suddenly a fun (and important) game
Don't look now, but the entire AFC North is 2-1! (Please ignore the fact that the Steelers and Browns have point differentials of minus-7 and minus-17, respectively.)
Independent of the records and the stakes, the Thursday night game between the Steelers and Browns in Cleveland has become an interesting one because of coaching changes to two units I thought might be entrenched in their particular approaches. Steelers coach Mike McCarthy and offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio have breathed fresh life into the Pittsburgh offense, and Browns defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg has given Cleveland's defense new layers of depth and complexity.
Let's start with the Steelers' offense, which in Week 3 did the one thing the Bengals were hoping would never happen again: It ran the ball on Cincinnati. Jaylen Warren had 69 rushing yards before contact in this game -- the biggest single-game number he has ever had. (That's with a sick 87-yard run wiped out by DK Metcalf's pretty inconsequential holding penalty, by the way.)
The Steelers' offensive line rose to the occasion against the Bengals' much improved front. With two new starters at right guard (Brock Hoffman) and right tackle (first-round pick Max Iheanachor), the Steelers felt comfortable running into the heart of the Bengals' defense, where Warren consistently made the Bengals' pair of inconsistent, young linebackers (Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter) miss in tight areas.
Pittsburgh also used its deep room of tight ends to borrow some 49ers running concepts, pitching the ball out wide and getting lead blockers in motion while ignoring Bengals' Dexter Lawrence II on the interior entirely. With both the vertical and horizontal running games popping, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was able to get to a play-action game that created explosives -- the golden goose at this stage of his career, when it's harder for him to extend plays or make tight-window throws over the middle. Rodgers had the longest time to throw (3.19 seconds) that he has ever had as a Steeler, and 18.9% of his dropbacks were under-center play-action -- his highest since Week 3 of last season.
With an impactful running game and a functional play-action passing game, the Steelers have an offense that can run with a top-10 defense (I'm not sure they have that without Joey Porter Jr., but it's possible) and make some noise in the postseason. That offense is still a work in progress, and it will get a solid test against the Browns' defense in Week 4.
Perhaps the most dominant performance of Week 3 that went unremarked upon was the Browns' defense against the Panthers. After consecutive 30-point outings in which it looked like the Panthers could pass against just about anyone, they scored only three points in the first half -- on a drive the Browns' defense committed three penalties.
The Bengals' defensive tackle group is good at holding its ground and freeing up space for the linebackers. The Browns' group gets upfield. Rutenberg has retained that key feature of former coordinator Jim Schwartz's philosophy, and the Browns' talented group of young defensive linemen (Mason Graham, Jared Verse and Mike Hall Jr.) splashed disruption and created run stuffs against Carolina's usually effective running game.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 29, 2026
But in the defensive backfield, Rutenberg has been more creative in his rotations and pressure packages. Some of the invention is needed to account for cornerback Tyson Campbell's injury -- the Browns started Mekhi Blackmon, who was claimed off waivers in August -- but it was also game-plan specific. The Browns dropped safeties into the low hole consistently at the snap, taking away Young's quick crossers and slants and forcing him into prolonged dropbacks in which Cleveland's pass rush won fast and often. Young was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks in this game, and you saw the Browns' seven QB hits accumulate over time.
The matchup between the Browns' defense and Steelers' offense is particularly interesting because of the impact star cornerback Denzel Ward can have. He blanketed Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan in Week 3 (26 matchups, 2 targets, 1 reception, 12 yards) and should have the same impact on Metcalf in Pittsburgh, which will force the ball to the Steelers' secondary pass catchers. For the 2025 Steelers, that was a terrible sign. But the Steelers had Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek and Darnell Washington as key contributions in a spread-the-wealth win against Cincinnati on Sunday. Will the Browns have Campbell back to handle that? Can their speedy but undersized linebackers deal with physicality from the Steelers' Pat Freiermuth and Washington?
The Browns' penetrating front and willingness to blitz also presents a new challenge to the refurbished right side of the Steelers' line, for whom communication and chemistry must be tested. Steelers rookie right tackle Max Iheanachor going up against former Rams edge rusher Jared Verse is one of the best power-for-power matchups we'll see in this young season. Defensive tackle Mason Graham, the No. 5 pick in 2025, is having a breakout Year 2, but Steelers' Zach Frazier is an all-universe center through three games. And remember: Rutenberg was on the Jets' defensive staff from 2021 to 2024 and got an up-close look at what Rodgers can -- and can't -- do at this stage in his career.
My gut is leaning toward the Browns leading the AFC North this time next week. Weird times!
I think ... I'll never trust the Bills
I left the Bills off my very official postseason bracket prediction, and Buffalo fans have been roasting me on social media ever since. Fair play. The Bills are 3-0, and the Patriots (1-2) look like a mess in the division. Let's walk back to the top of the AFC East, where the Bills have long been and truly belong.
But it's exactly games such as Sunday's that make it so challenging to trust the Bills. The NFL season is a long and winding labyrinth to the Super Bowl, and around any corner lurks these disastrous offensive performances -- the Bills have stacked enough of them now that they cannot be ignored.
Against the Chargers (0-3), the Bills turned the ball over five times. Buffalo is the first team to win a game with 5-plus turnovers and a turnover margin of minus-4 or worse since the 2023 Jaguars, who beat the Chargers in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Before that, the last such team to win was the 2015 Denver Broncos in a Week 17 game against -- I'll give you one guess -- the San Diego Chargers.
Buffalo would have lost Sunday were it not for the Chargers' gross incompetence and apparent decades-long hex to lose such games. The Bills fumbled three times. One was a classic Josh Allen gaffe in the pocket in which he overestimated his own strength. Another was a concerning continuation of a trend for James Cook III, who -- as my colleague Bill Barnwell noted -- now has eight fumbles in his past 19 games.
Allen also threw two interceptions. One was a deep throw into double coverage -- he likely thought he had an offsides penalty given the early step from a Chargers defensive tackle, but he couldn't confirm the flag on the play-action fake and was punished for his heave. The other pick has no such excuses. Allen stares right into the heart of a quarters safety and tries to throw the ball so hard it passes through his material body.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 29, 2026
In a vacuum, it would be unfair to freak out too much about this game. But Allen has these games. His last game with a minus-4 turnover margin was the divisional-round playoff loss to the Broncos. Easily remembered is his catastrophic fumble at the end of the first half to set up a Broncos field goal. It was joined by another fumble deep in his own territory to set up another field goal and a pick in Broncos territory to waste a short field. These were devastating plays in a game that went to overtime and was eventually lost on a second, controversial interception.
The Bills are capable of these high-turnover games against any quality of opponent -- last season, they lost 30-13 to a Dolphins team that was on a seven-game losing streak on the back of three giveaways. The Bills' offensive line now looks healthier than it did during that stretch last season, but still the Chargers' starting edge rusher duo of Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu had a combined 11 pressures and 2.5 sacks.
High-pressure teams bring out the wild side of Allen, who has grown admirably into a far more risk-averse quarterback than he once was. Still, the same big-play magic that makes the Bills seem unbeatable at times is also what makes the Bills eminently beatable -- by anyone -- when they catch some bad luck.
Buffalo got away with it this time. The Bills can even get away with it against superior opponents -- they have before, because Allen is that special. But this is the sort of game that puts the heebie-jeebies in me when I consider a potential postseason run.
I think ... J.J. McCarthy will save neither himself nor the Giants
But I'm still excited to watch him try!
The short but fraught tenure of McCarthy, the No. 10 pick of the 2024 draft, and the Vikings has ended, as the quarterback was traded to the Giants this week for a fifth-round pick. The Giants are looking for a serviceable bridge quarterback in Jaxson Dart's absence, and the Vikings were looking for ... well, just about any reason to move on from McCarthy.
It's important to recall just how bad McCarthy's 2025 season was. Since 2010, there have been 541 seasons played by a quarterback with at least 250 dropbacks. McCarthy's 2025 QBR (36.1) ranks 498th, his interception per dropback (4.2%) ranks 531st and his sack per dropback (9.4%) ranks 509th.
That interception/sack rate -- 13.6% all together -- is a walloping number. Almost one out of every seven dropbacks from McCarthy last season ended in a sack or a pick. It does not matter how good the throws are when you actually connect on them. There is no path to quarterbacking relevancy that bypasses those two numbers. McCarthy cuts a dramatic number of his interceptions and sacks, or he isn't viable. Simple as that.
Is there historical precedent for such an evolution? Giants fans should know the answer to that. Eli Manning had worse interception performances in the 2010 (25 picks, 4.4% rate) and 2013 (27 picks, 4.5% rate) seasons. In between, he made two Pro Bowls.
The issue, of course, is that Manning had a low sack rate when he was throwing all those picks. It's the combination that kills you. In 2013, Geno Smith (Jets) had a combined number of 12.4%, and it took him several seasons of bouncing around as a backup to find resurrection. Other significant names with big interception and sack rates include 2022 Justin Fields (15.0%, oh my heavens), 2024 Will Levis (14.6%), 2011 Christian Ponder (12.6%), 2021 Zach Wilson (12.4%). Does anybody feel good?
Smith is evidence that a high ranking on the list is not a death knell, and there's more to join him. Ryan Tannehill in 2018 was at 14.0%, then went on to be a perfectly acceptable quarterback for the Titans. Lamar Jackson was at 11.7% just last season after an MVP year!
The thing is, you have to pay off your negatives with big positives, and while McCarthy had an acceptable rate of explosive passes last season ... it wasn't nearly enough. That was in an offense built around explosive plays over anything else: long dropbacks, deep-developing routes, under-center play-action fakes. In New York, McCarthy will get more spread looks and RPOs from the gun. Does he have the poise, field vision and accuracy to create explosive plays in that passing game?
I'm dubious ... but I am interested. The offensive line in New York is far better than the banged-up line the Vikings had for McCarthy in 2025. McCarthy is a slippery mover who should be involved in the option running game, though he needs to protect himself from hits, as he has collected far too many knocks over his short time in the league. I can see Matt Nagy and Greg Roman, the two primary offensive designers in New York, coming up with good, risk-averse game plans that dramatically lower McCarthy's time to throw (3.22 seconds last season, 14th longest for a QB since 2010) and minimize his opportunities for post-snap decisions.
Is that enough to keep the Giants' season afloat? I doubt it. I love the running game talent, but the lack of depth at pass catcher will hurt them against teams that can take away receiver Malik Nabers with either scheme or personnel. I love the pass rush but worry that big-boy offenses will run all over them. The Giants are an incomplete team -- a totally acceptable thing to be, in Year 1 of the John Harbaugh era -- and incomplete teams lack the internal structure to support imperfect quarterbacks such as McCarthy.
Quarterback reclamation, while more common in recent years, is a finicky process. It has mostly happened in the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan systems (that's not what New York runs), and it usually happens after a couple of years in the family, too. McCarthy is a midseason acquisition away from that coaching tree. Getting out of Minnesota and turning his career to a fresh page was the first step on a long path to return to relevancy. I'm not ruling it out -- it's a crazy league -- but I'm not holding my breath for it. It'll take longer than my lungs have capacity for.
Five things I might think
I might think ... we haven't seen the Kyler Murray offense yet. In Murray's first full game as Vikings quarterback, Minnesota had the worst offensive success rate it has had in a game under Kevin O'Connell. Some of that has to do with the style the Vikings are running with Murray (he was hunting deep passes all game). But still, there are a lot of bad backup QBs in that sample -- spooky stuff.
I'm not too worried there. The Vikings' No. 1 receiver (Justin Jefferson, you might have heard of him) went down early because of an ankle injury in Week 3 (but avoided serious injury), which is obviously a big deal. No. 1 running back Jordan Mason (thumb) is also still on injured reserve. This is a very new offense to Murray, and it's going to take time to acclimate before we even consider the absences. No panic button for me yet.
I might think ... the Bears have a QB controversy. Just kidding. But how about the veteran pulling out a 27-7 win over the Eagles! No. 3 QB Case Keenum did his job as the quick-distribution point guard in Ben Johnson's suddenly quick and spread-out offense. The Bears absolutely got the drop on the Eagles with a different approach than Johnson's offense has typically used, and they might not get such a surprise factor in future games. But their next three opponents are the Jets, Packers and Falcons (who have combined for a total of three wins) -- and Keenum likely won't be the quarterback for all three, as No. 2 Tyson Bagent returns from concussion protocol.
I'm impressed by the way Johnson changed the offense to account for the lack of Caleb Williams (hamstring), and I'm confident he can do it week over week to keep the Bears afloat until their star passer returns.
I might think ... the Dolphins are being punished for something. The lone known commodity among all Dolphins skill position players was running back De'Von Achane, whom they could have traded but valued so much they kept him. Now he is lost for the season to a torn ACL in his left knee. The Dolphins' three opponents so far (Raiders, 49ers and Chiefs) are a combined 9-0 ... and their Week 4 opponent is the 3-0 Vikings.
I might think ... the Ravens have a Marlon Humphrey problem. It was a nice last-second win there for the Ravens, but the target the Cowboys put on Humphrey in coverage was ... concerning. On 37 coverage snaps, the cornerback saw 10 targets and surrendered 6 catches for 108 yards and a score -- the Cowboys were especially attacking him on late downs and in the red zone. I'm monitoring the Ravens for cornerback trades as we transition into the fall.
I might think ... defensive pass interference will be reviewable by this time next year. There were two game-changing calls in Cowboys-Ravens and Rams-Broncos. Only one actually flipped the outcome (bad luck, Rams fans) -- but it was in primetime for a Super Bowl favorite. A few more of those, and we're going to see the ever-expanding reach of replay assist extend into pass interference calls. So long as it's the speedy assist method, and not the prolonged review method, I'm all for it. There's nothing I respect less than receivers farming pass interference instead of playing the ball.