NBA commissioner Adam Silver's news conference in December 2020 was remarkable for several reasons. Similar to many large gatherings during the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was conducted entirely on Zoom. But it was also when he was first asked whether the NBA would consider expansion again for the first time in two decades.
The question, from then-ESPN reporter Tim Bontemps, was framed as a discussion of how the league might recover some of the revenue lost during the pandemic. Silver responded that expansion wasn't on "the front burner," but added that it was "sort of the manifest destiny of the league."
In other words, expansion was inevitable. The only question was when.
First, the NBA focused on securing its new 11-year, $76 billion broadcast deal. Then, it turned its attention to expansion. That process is now nearing its conclusion, with ESPN's Shams Charania reporting this week that the league is expected to select the winning bid for ownership of the Las Vegas team in the very near future, from among three finalist groups.
Here's our latest intel from sources around the NBA on how the final stages of this six-year process could play out.
Where does expansion stand heading into the 2026-27 NBA season?
Silver said he wants a vote on expansion before the end of this calendar year.
That's a broad enough statement to leave a lot of room for negotiations. As it stands, the NBA and strategic adviser PJT Partners, which is handling the process, are more focused on getting a team in Las Vegas, where the interest and bidding have been far more robust than in Seattle.
The expectation is the Las Vegas franchise will go for around $10 billion, with the winning group also expected to spend an additional $2-3 billion to construct a new arena.
As Silver mentioned, there is still discussion among current owners and the bid groups about the best place for a new arena.
A vote on the three groups bidding on Las Vegas -- Nancy Walton Laurie and Bill Laurie; Steve Apostolopoulos and Marc Lasry; and Bill Foley and Jerry Colangelo -- could come soon, sources told Charania.
The runner-up groups could then pivot to Seattle, where Kraken owner Samantha Holloway's group appears to be in pole position, with a valuation sources with knowledge of the process currently estimate to be around $6 billion.
Holloway has tremendous leverage because her company, One Roof Sports & Entertainment, has a majority share of Climate Pledge Arena, which already hosts the WNBA's Seattle Storm and the Kraken and could easily convert to host NBA games as well.
Any other bidder would either have to build their own arena or negotiate with Holloway to use Climate Pledge Arena, a state-of-the-art arena built in 2021, which has also hosted NCAA tournament games. It should be pointed out, though, that the city of Seattle included a provision in its initial 2018 deal with the Oak View Group that if Seattle is awarded an NBA franchise in the future, the new owner had an option to buy into the arena management entity of the arena at fair market value.
There's also a possibility that the runner-ups in Vegas will pivot -- as Josh Kushner and Bob Iger did in buying the Los Angeles Lakers from Mark Walter in August -- and try to buy an existing team.
Several ownership-level sources say the most interesting fallout from the decision on Las Vegas is how it could impact the situation with the Portland Trail Blazers and new owner Tom Dundon.
The Seattle market is closest to Portland, meaning a new team there could diminish the Blazers' overall market.
But it also serves as a relocation threat for Dundon, giving him leverage in his negotiations with local authorities on renovations to the Moda Center or a new arena.
So ... what's the latest on the Portland situation?
Now, this is where it gets interesting. Dundon is in a standoff with the city of Portland regarding a renovation of the Moda Center and has used the expansion process and the threat of relocation for leverage in recent discussions with other owners and city officials, according to multiple ownership and industry sources.
Though Silver has publicly stated that he'd consider relocating the Blazers as "a failure," Dundon's threat is real as long as Seattle and Vegas are being considered as NBA markets and Dundon has issues with his current arena.
Still, expansion is far more likely than relocation.
Recent NFL relocation fees for the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers were $645 million, while the Raiders paid $378 million to move to Vegas.
Even adjusted for the exponential growth in valuation since those moves, one industry source estimated a relocation fee in the NBA would be $1.5 billion-2 billion, if the other owners were even willing to consider it.
Divided by 30, that's a fraction of what the owners stand to make in expansion fees.
Also, why would the other owners vote for relocation for an owner who has been in the league for only a year?
What does the formal approval process look like?
Twenty-three of the 30 owners (two-thirds) must vote to approve the concept of expansion and whichever bid groups are chosen for expansion.
Though there is a lot of momentum for expansion, support for it is not universal, multiple ownership and industry sources say.
Some owners have expressed concerns about the dilution of talent and revenue across the league if two franchises are added.
Others have more personal concerns about how these two franchises could affect their current regional markets.
For example, the Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and both Los Angeles teams have fans in Las Vegas, and a new team in Seattle could theoretically draw fans away from Portland, Minnesota or Denver.
Though there remains a group of owners who aren't fully convinced the league should expand at this time, sources indicate there's still confidence that expansion will pass -- with either Silver or other owners whipping the votes.
If the franchises combine to generate $15 billion-18 billion in expansion fees, each of the 30 owners stands to make approximately $500-600 million before the new teams begin play in 2028-29. One owner told ESPN his franchise was already monitoring how expansion fees could impact them.
These expansion fees are not considered basketball-related income and thus are not shared with the players. This was a major point of contention in recent WNBA collective bargaining negotiations.
Expansion fees are considered compensation for diluting future revenues from 30 owners to 32 owners. Dropping from 1/30th to 1/32nd of that pool creates a revenue loss of roughly $9 million in national broadcast revenue, per team, per year. Dilution also impacts distributions of league sponsorships, merchandise and local broadcast revenue, which is reported as BRI and international licensing.
Why is the Las Vegas expansion process currently ahead of Seattle's?
Market forces. In Las Vegas, there are three groups aggressively bidding for the franchise.
Competition creates leverage and demand, whereas Seattle's final price largely comes down to whether the NBA can create more competition for Holloway's group, which includes philanthropist Melinda French Gates and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, to increase the price.
There is one other publicly known bidder in Seattle, BlackSun Private Equity group, which announced that it had joined the Tulalip Tribes on a bid featuring a new arena built in a massive entertainment district 35 miles north of the city. However, industry sources have indicated that there's at least one other group that has expressed interest in Seattle that hasn't been publicly identified.
Why is there so much more interest in Vegas? Seattle is a top-15 media market with 4 million residents with massive corporate wealth -- anchored by companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Costco.
Las Vegas has only 2.3 million residents and is a top-40 media market. But with 38 million annual visitors, it's also a global entertainment capital.
A new NBA franchise would be a boon to tourism, similar to what the Raiders have been since they relocated from Oakland. Las Vegas's support for the Aces and Golden Knights is also notable in the NBA's consideration of it as a market.
Where does the latest expansion news leave Seattle?
Seattle remains in a bit of a holding pattern until Las Vegas is settled.
Holloway's group doesn't want to bid against itself if it doesn't have to. The question is whether a runner-up in Vegas would pivot to the Seattle market and create more robust competition.
Foley is a Vegas resident with strong ties to the city as the owner of the Las Vegas Knights of the NHL. Laurie lives in Henderson, Nev., so neither of them would have an easy time pivoting to a different market after so much focus on Las Vegas.
That leaves the Apostolopolous group, which is based in Toronto, and partnered with former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry, who lives in New York. Steve Apostolopolous previously bid on the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Commanders, showing a willingness to bid on franchises across different sports and markets.
Would the NBA have to add two teams if it is to expand? Could it expand to 31?
The NBA can do whatever it wants, but expanding by one franchise would leave an odd number of teams and unbalance the schedule. But there is precedent.
In fact, from 1980, when the Dallas Mavericks were added to the league, until 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats were added, the NBA had an odd number of teams.
The WNBA, where the Golden State Valkyries were announced in October 2023, became the league's 13th franchise while debuting in the 2025 season.
Toronto and Portland were awarded in 2024 and made their debuts as the 14th and 15th franchises this season. But the WNBA doesn't use the traditional playoff structure of Eastern Conference versus Western Conference.
The top eight teams make the playoffs, regardless of conference affiliation.