If you ask most people to name an athlete or a movie star or a president, they will be able to dig into their memories and came up with more than a name or two. Now, if you ask people to name an orthopedic surgeon, unless that person is a doctor or was recently injured, you'll get silence, a blank stare or perhaps a face full of pepper spray.
The exception: a serious baseball fan. Surgeons such as pioneering orthopedist Frank Jobe, James Andrews and Neal ElAttrache are well-known figures in baseball circles.
Why? Because Tommy John surgery has become more commonplace among pitchers today. Even if the result of undergoing the procedure on your elbow is often a lot sunnier than, say, a rotator cuff, it's bad news when a pitcher on your favorite team is making a visit to one of these famous surgeons. You go under the knife in March and your season is over.
Fortune smiled this week on David Price and the Red Sox -- for now -- as Price received the news from Andrews that Tommy John surgery isn't required at this time. Price just needs rest and a bit of care for the sore elbow rather than a knife.
Even with Chris Sale as the new hotness of the Red Sox rotation, losing Price for a season would have had a serious impact on Boston. Sure, the Red Sox have a pretty good sixth option in either Drew Pomeranz or Eduardo Rodriguez. The problem is that even with a healthy Price, those two pitchers were already projected to get a lot of innings. If Price were out, the nasty surprise is that those extra innings weren't likely to be handled by those two, but by other less desirable options such as Henry Owens or Roenis Elias or Brian Johnson or, frighteningly, Kyle Kendrick.
One of the fun things about having a projection system with a Monte Carlo simulation is that you can tinker around with a lot of scenarios. And filling in a little bit of Pomeranz/E-Rod and a little more of Owens/Elias reduces the Red Sox's probability of making the 2017 playoffs by a whopping 24 percentage points (from 83 percent to 59 percent). Just as teams that are expected to be around 80-87 wins get the most value from additional marginal wins, teams that are expected to be around 85-92 wins get hit the hardest from losses. Losing four wins drops the Red Sox back to the AL East pack somewhat, and while they still project as a strong team and the best in the division, there's no truly terrible team in the AL East. Any of the other four would have realistic odds of challenging the Red Sox if things go that way.
So how would that 24-percentage-point loss compare to other top players in baseball? To answer this, for several contenders I repeatedly simulated the 2017 season a million times with the ZiPS projections, in each instance removing a specific star player from his team and then filling in the realistic Plan B's. The loss of David Price would be one of the 10 biggest hits for a team losing a player (the eighth-worst possible loss).
I'm guessing that neither my editor nor the people reading this will let me escape without the rest of the Top 10. (Editor's note: You are correct.) Players are ranked by the change in team playoff percentage points if the team goes without that player for a whole season.
10. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros: Minus-21.2 percent
Both of Houston's star middle infielders make this list for obvious reasons. The Altuve replacement plan is likely similar to Correa's outlined below, some combination of Marwin Gonzalez and an Alex Bregman reshuffle. Altuve is projected as slightly less amazing than Correa, so he gets the lower spot here.
9. Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians: Minus-22.7 percent
The Indians survived the loss of Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar for part of the 2016 season and got to the 10th inning of Game 7 of the World Series, but that doesn't mean those losses weren't an issue. If Cleveland had its full rotation, maybe the Cubs would still be trying to break their curse. Kluber is projected to be Cleveland's best pitcher -- and he's been the most durable in the rotation -- so losing him would be the Indians' biggest hit. They're likely not a 95-win team, so a whole season of Mike Clevinger, Ryan Merritt and maybe some Tim Cooney later on would have divisional consequences.
8. David Price, Boston Red Sox: Minus-24.0 percent We talked about Price above! You're not trying to skip right to the list, are you?