Valkyries look to clinch, Dream try to stay alive in Game 6 of the WNBA Finals

ATLANTA -- Seven-game playoff series are known for having major momentum swings. That has been the case for the 2026 WNBA Finals, only the second year the championship series has had a best-of-seven format.

The Atlanta Dream looked firmly in control following back-to-back wins in Games 2 and 3 to pull ahead 2-1. But the Golden State Valkyries have snagged the momentum back with consecutive wins in Games 4 and 5 to take a 3-2 lead.

With a victory in Game 6 on Thursday (12:30 p.m. ET) at Atlanta's State Farm Arena, the Valkyries would win the WNBA title in just their second season, while a victory for the Dream would send the series back to Ballhalla for a winner-take-all Game 7 on Halloween in San Francisco.

ESPN looks at how the series changed and what both teams need to do to come out on top Thursday.

How did the Valkyries go from down 2-1 to one win away from the WNBA title?

Copeland: Turnovers have been the biggest predictor of success in these Finals. In its Game 2 and 3 losses, Golden State averaged 18 turnovers that led to 23 points for Atlanta. In the Game 4 and 5 wins, the Valkyries averaged nine turnovers that turned into seven points. On the flip side, in Games 4 and 5, the Dream averaged 17.5 turnovers that led to 18.5 points for the Valkyries. If there's a silo of metrics that I've paid the most attention to, it's turnovers, turnover differential and points scored off those turnovers.

Philippou: Credit Natalie Nakase for the adjustments she made after Game 3. The Valkyries are the first team in WNBA Finals history to change multiple players in their starting lineup in Game 3 or later of a best-of-five series (without an injury to a starter). But it has paid dividends for Golden State to start Kaila Charles and Tiffany Hayes while bringing Kayla Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini off the bench.

Nakase has also shortened her rotation to basically seven players instead of the usual nine or 10, with Kiah Stokes, Veronica Burton and Gabby Williams each playing closer to 30 minutes per game this series. Altogether, the moves have helped the Valkyries have better starts and get back to their defensive identity. The coach has credited her "egoless" team for being willing to make individual sacrifices to win, and now it is one victory away from a championship.

What must the Valkyries keep doing to win the championship?

Copeland: Keep making life hard for Angel Reese. The three-time All-Star and 2026 Defensive Player of the Year was the runaway favorite for Finals MVP when the Dream led 2-1. In Game 4, she was held to 2-for-12 shooting, eight points, nine rebounds and six turnovers. Things weren't much better in Game 5 as Reese was limited to seven points, 15 rebounds and five assists on 2-for-8 shooting. She seemed outwardly frustrated Monday night after averaging 25.5 points and 14 rebounds in the two Atlanta victories. (Oh, and winning the turnover differential.)

Voepel: There haven't been a lot of what you would call easy baskets in this series, but in the past two games the Valkyries have gotten more of them than the Dream. Mostly, that has been through steals leading to layups, but they also have been successful at finding a few gaps in Atlanta's defense. A few times, they've just worn out the Dream with their patience until the end of the shot clock, when they've finally gotten a good look.

Nakase talked a lot Monday about how she has a tendency to be a little impatient and want things too quickly and had to slow down for her team. The Valkyries have not let the Dream dictate pace the past two games. Instead, Golden State has been in control, and if the Valkyries can do it again Thursday, it will be hard for Atlanta to have a much different result than in Games 4 and 5.

When was the last time a favorite for Finals MVP was averaging 5.6 points a game in those Finals? Kiah Stokes has been stellar for Golden State. https://t.co/nuDWKMimJL

— Rebecca Lobo (@RebeccaLobo) October 27, 2026

In addition to Golden State's defense, what has gone wrong for the Dream?

Philippou: For as spectacular as Reese was in Games 2 and 3, Atlanta's margin for error is just so much narrower if it is this reliant on her to win. Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada are averaging 14.4, 12.0 and 10.6 points, respectively, in the series. Scoring was always going to be difficult to come by in a matchup of two defensive juggernauts, but the Dream are undoubtedly better offensively than they showed Monday -- not to mention they are more offensively minded than the Valkyries. Atlanta's guards need to get going for the Dream to have any hope of winning the championship.

I'm also wondering how much fatigue is a factor for the Dream, not that they're likely to admit it, given how much they've relied on their top six players this series and all year. We'll see how both clubs look in Game 6 following another cross-country trip, with two days of rest in between games.

Voepel: The Dream are a tight-knit unit, but the past two games they haven't played together as well as the Valkyries have. There are moments when players' individual frustrations have seemed to bubble over more on the Dream's side because they just haven't been able to run their offense the way they did against other teams. Before the Finals, both clubs downplayed the regular-season series, won 3-0 by Golden State, because all those games were so much earlier this year. But it's looking more like those results were an indicator of why the Valkyries might have an upper hand in this series.

And while no one for Atlanta has used this as an excuse, Gray's hand injury has impacted her effectiveness. She averaged 19.0 points and shot 46.2% from the field in the regular season, compared to 13.9 points and 34.4% in her eight playoff games. That's a significant factor in Atlanta's effectiveness and her confidence, especially against a defensive team this good.

What must Atlanta do to stay alive and force Game 7?

Copeland: Find a way to score. Yes, Atlanta was one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, but it also ranked No. 3 in points per game (91.3). That was a huge part of the Dream's identity that has been essentially eradicated in all but one Finals contest. Gray (19.0 points per game) was the No. 9 scorer in the league, Howard (17.7) was No. 11 and Reese (16.4) was No. 17. The Valkyries were the No. 14 scoring team in the WNBA, so they're absolutely used to winning low-scoring slugfests. That's exactly how they got to this point. The Dream relied on their offense much more, and when that is taken away, life became much more difficult.

As Mike said above, Gray is not 100%, so that's a blow. But when a team is averaging 31 fewer points in three Finals losses than it's used to during the regular season, that's a considerable shift in the ethos of how it operates as a group. A boost from DeWanna Bonner, who has been held to single digits in all five Finals games, would be a help.

Philippou: Can Reese and the Dream rediscover the confidence and fire they exuded earlier in this series? Atlanta is a team that tends to be more emotive than Golden State -- the highs are high; the lows can be low. Neither group is that experienced on this stage, but the Dream's young stars -- Reese, Howard and Gray -- are entirely new to the roller coaster that a seven-game championship series can entail.

The Valkyries pride themselves on being at their best when their backs are against the wall. The Dream need to take a similar approach and keep the belief high that they can still win this series despite tough setbacks in the past two games.

Will the 12:30 p.m. ET tipoff impact Game 6?

Copeland: Not on the court. I look at this in the same way as some questions about motivation at this point of the series and season. If someone can't get themselves fired up at this point with the biggest opportunity of their professional career, at maximum, 80 minutes away, then there's something wrong. Both teams are dealing with the same issues regarding the cadence of the series -- back and forth across Pacific and Eastern time zones. But if an early afternoon start throws off either team in any drastic measure, particularly from an energy standpoint, that's an internal issue. Sure, it might be an odd time, but it's not like these two clubs have been shooting the lights out and the early start would mess with their rhythm.