Chivas' 2015 Apertura fate was arguably decided by an ill-thought out bus parade following the Copa MX final victory over Leon in November. Forty-eight hours after the tour around Guadalajara, Chivas lost 2-1 against Dorados de Sinaloa to virtually end their chances of reaching the Liga MX playoffs. The 2015 Apertura then clattered to a halt with a 3-0 home loss against Santos Laguna in the final game of the season.
The parade for a trophy that is nowhere near important as the league title was ill-advised. A celebration was in order, but it should've been kept in check.
That little tale should be at the forefront of everyone's mind at Chivas in 2016 and serves as a warning in the Clausura tournament. Chivas cannot afford to get carried away, or take the eye off the battle to avoid relegation and stay in Liga MX.
With one team set to descend into the Ascenso MX in May, Chivas start in 15th position in Mexico's overly-complicated relegation table -- worked out over three years or six short seasons. Below them are Puebla, Morelia and Dorados de Sinaloa, although the margins are slim and a bad start for Chivas in the Clausura could see them slip rapidly, especially with Puebla and Morelia having decent Apertura seasons. There are only four points between Chivas and 17th-placed Morelia, while Dorados' points-to-game ratio is volatile due to their promotion last season.
In the offseason, there have been significant changes in the roster, with Carlos "Gullit" Pena, Orbelin Pineda and Giovani Hernandez strengthening the squad and Carlos Fierro (Queretaro), Marco Fabian (Bayer Leverkusen) and Jorge "Chaton" Enriquez (Leon) leaving.
Fierro, Fabian and Enriquez represent a significant loss in terms of talent, with all three having the ability on paper to match the very best in their positions in Liga MX. However, the trio has also been inconsistent for Chivas in recent season, explaining why they were allowed to leave.
Over 15 million USD was spent on bringing in Pineda and Pena and both are exciting talents. Looking at the positive side, they should provide goals from midfield -- something that has been badly missing at Chivas for years -- and make the team more exciting to watch going forward. Yet there are some concerns, with Pena not the same player and driving force he was for Leon ahead of the 2014 World Cup, and Pineda a 19-year-old who tends to be shy and nervous in interviews and may need time to adjust to life at one of the continent's biggest clubs.
The first team will likely be Antonio Rodriguez in goal, Raul Lopez at right back, Miguel Ponce on the left, Oswaldo Alanis and Carlos Salcedo in the center, Israel Castro and Pena in central midfield, Pineda, Isaac Brizuela and David "Avion" Ramirez as the attacking midfielders and Omar Bravo upfront in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Overall, Chivas look a decent side. But there are other good teams in Liga MX and squads like those of Tigres, Monterrey and Club America are clearly better. A regular season finish between mid-table and the playoff spots would be the par performance for Chivas, because it is difficult to conclude that they are much improved on last season, when they finished 13th.
The one overriding problem with the make-up of the squad is the lack of depth upfront. Bravo was sensational in 2015. The club captain scored 16 goals over the team's 38 Liga MX games in 2015, with Chivas only netting 47 goals in total. In the past Apertura, Bravo scored 10 of the team's 23 goals, with Fabian next on the list with three. If the 35-year-old gets injured or loses form, the options of Angel Zaldivar and Michel Vazquez behind him don't inspire confidence, and the club's reported interest in Alan Pulido and Eduardo Herrera seem to indicate that the Chivas hierarchy is well aware of the paucity of proven strikers.
The first few games will be vital for Chivas in setting the tone for the season. The opener is at home to Veracruz (Jan. 10), followed by Cruz Azul away (Jan. 16), Tigres in the Estadio Omnilife (Jan. 24) and Morelia in Estadio Morelos (Jan. 30). Nine points out of those four matches would be an excellent start and spark talk of the playoffs and even a championship.
If Chivas do start well, one worry is that Chivas owner Jorge Vergara seems not to have learned lessons from the past. He has been radiating positivity this preseason and talking up his team's chances of a championship in the near future. It is dangerous and unhelpful rhetoric, even if it may sell a few extra season tickets. The saving grace is Argentine coach Matias Almeyda, who experienced the relegation doldrums as a player with River Plate in 2011 and has maintained a humble stance that fighting the drop is the over-riding priority. Also, Vergara's penchant for verbosity and his track record of not always following through on promises means a lot of what he says these days just goes over people's heads.
Vergara's focus should really be in leaving Almeyda and sporting director Jaime Ordiales to work while he sorts the legal battle that sees his soon-to-be ex-wife Angelica Fuentes seeking control of the club. The legal technicalities are complex, but until there is a definitive resolution, the issue hangs over the institution like a storm cloud, threatening to disrupt its running at any moment.
If Chivas do get relegated, it would be the biggest story in Mexican football in 2016. It shouldn't happen, but then the same was said when Almeyda's River Plate went down to Argentina's second division in 2011.