The MLS post-season begins on Wednesday with a Western Conference play-in matchup between FC Dallas and Vancouver. There was little to choose between the teams in the regular season -- which one will advance to face Seattle in the Western Conference semifinals?
FC Dallas
Strength: FC Dallas have been defensively sound and dynamic in the attack under first-year coach Oscar Pareja. The former FCD midfielder, lured home from Colorado last winter, has built a tough team in his image. This is a hard side to score on, yet they can also go forward with verve and a flair that at times can match up with any attack in the league. Stout captain Matt Hedges is the heart of the defense. Brazilian midfielder Michel provides steel higher up the field, and attacking duo Fabian Castillo and Blas Perez take turns scoring up front, notching 10 and 11 goals respectively during the regular season.
Weakness: Experience. This is FCD's first trip to the postseason since 2011, when they were bounced by New York at home at the same stage. Just five players from then remain, and Hoops fans were given ample reason to worry about their team's lack of under-pressure chops before the playoffs even began, when Dallas lost their regular-season finale at home to Portland when a win would have allowed them to avoid the knockout match altogether and advance directly to the conference semifinals.
X factor: Castillo is the straw that stirs the Texans' drink. In addition to double-digit goals, the little Colombian, still just 22, added four assists and had a team-high 74 shots (32 of them on target). Because Vancouver will have to track the active Castillo's movements at all times, space will be available to exploit for veteran target-man Perez, who matched his 2013 goal output and also picked up a career-high six assists in 2014.
Key stat: In seven appearances against Vancouver, all of which were starts, Perez has netted four times from nine shots on target.
Why FCD will win: Hosting the knockout game is still a huge advantage: In the six that have been played since MLS adopted the current 10-team playoff format in 2011, the home team advanced four times. Indeed, in three regular-season meetings between these clubs this year, Dallas won only the match staged at Toyota Stadium, where they went 12-4-1 overall this season. And did we mention that Vancouver has never won at Toyota Stadium?
Vancouver Whitecaps
Strength: More than anything, the Caps have all the momentum on their side, having made a furious late-season dash just to reach the postseason. Carl Robinson's team ended the 2014 campaign on a 4-0-1 run and eventually qualified under the most pressure-packed circumstances imaginable: knowing that only a win against Colorado -- with whom they were tied halfway through last Saturday's decisive match -- would be good enough. That sort of mental strength could come in handy in Dallas.
Weakness: A toothless attack. Vancouver scored just 42 times in 34 regular-season games. That's six fewer than any other playoff team and 13 goals fewer than FC Dallas scored. And those are the overall numbers -- the Whitecaps' impotent output was even worse on the road, where the visitors averaged less than a goal a game. The Caps also lack depth up top; lead striker Pedro Morales scored a respectable 10 goals, but No. 2 Darren Mattocks managed to pot just six.
X factor: The central defensive pairing of Premier League vet Andy O'Brien and Costa Rican journeyman Kendall Waston -- it was Watson's goal that eventually beat the Rapids and put Vancouver into the postseason -- has been bedrock lately, leading the Caps to four consecutive clean sheets heading into Wednesday's match.
Key stat: Vancouver heads to Dallas having not conceded a goal in 393 competitive minutes, dating back to Sept. 27 against Real Salt Lake.
Why Vancouver will win: The Whitecaps are playing with house money. Few expected them to make the cut, and fewer still expect them to upset the hosts and move on to face top-ranked Cascadia rival Seattle. That puts all the pressure on Dallas. Sure, the odds favor the hosts, but there's a quiet confidence around Robinson's side. If FCD wilts when the lights go on, his team is well positioned to take advantage.