The law -- sculpted in the stone of some people's brains -- is that you can't be considered among the greatest ever if you haven't excelled at a World Cup. Its origins are unknown -- as unknown as the thought process whereby one would judge a man's entire career based on five summer weeks every quadrennium.
Yet the mantra exists. To get behind the velvet ropes of immortality, you must perform successfully on the biggest stage of all. (Pele? Check. Diego Maradona? Check. Johan Cruyff? Check. Eusebio? Check. Franz Beckenbauer? Check. Ferenc Puskas? Check. Roberto Baggio? Check.) Unless, for whatever reason, you were never given the chance (George Best, Alfredo Di Stefano, George Weah and a few select others).
It's not a dogma that makes sense to some of us. But it's real. And it's part of the lens through which Lionel Messi is judged and -- perhaps -- judges himself.
In that sense, the judgment is as harsh as the lamp above the dentist's chair. Messi's current greatness is as much aesthetic as statistical, but his numbers with Barcelona are so overwhelming and paradigm-busting that this, inevitably, is a big part of how he is defined.
Since his 21st birthday, Messi has notched 312 goals in 315 games in all club competitions -- an average of 52 a season in a sport where, if you hit half that, you are a bona fide, legitimate uber-goal-scorer. He's placed the bar so far above his own head that we view this past campaign as his worst ever -- or, at least, since reaching maturity -- and yet the numbers say he still scored 41 in 46.
And yet the World Cup figures tell an entirely different story. Messi scored in his World Cup debut exactly one day short of eight years ago. Since then? Nothing. Three games in 2006 (when he was a youngster) and five in 2010 (when he had hit his prime), and just that late goal against Serbia in Germany to show for it.
One goal in 572 minutes -- the sort of return you'd expect from an average box-to-box midfielder on a middling team.
On Sunday against Bosnia, later on against Nigeria and Iran, and later still if the Albiceleste don't implode as they did in 2002, he'll get the opportunity to remedy those numbers. Time can fix any statistical quirk; figures regress to the mean, and his mean is, well, pretty darn mean.
Because superstars -- especially Messi, who is particularly tough to read -- are generally as distant and inscrutable as they've ever been to the rest of us, you're bound against your better judgment to lapse into pop psychology. Does the lack of World Cup success gnaw away at his innards? How badly does he want to emulate Diego Maradona and Mario Kempes, who led Argentina to World Cup glory? Is it the cause of the anxiety that has led to his vomiting in training or games half a dozen times in the past year?
There are all legitimate questions that can yield legitimate theories, and since they can't be proved or disproved, we tend to drape them around Messi. Just score and win, baby; all will be all right and the bouncer will cast the velvet rope aside and let you in.
It's easy and convenient. It's also probably wrong.
A much simpler explanation is that he could never again score a single goal in his life, never again win a single piece of silverware, and still be among the greats. Also, that drawing big, broad conclusions from a single month every four years is a bit like your boss telling you that your salary review will be based on how you perform in the first week of March: the other 51 don't really matter.
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You would hope that Argentina boss Alejandro Sabella realizes this. He needs to get Messi right because Messi is the added value. But equally, it can't come at the expense of the other 22 in the squad. The basic rule of thumb -- find a system that allows your difference-makers to do what they do -- still applies, but the key is plural. Difference-makers. Argentina don't need Messi to advance from this group; he's not the only guy who can carry the side. When you have Angel Di Maria, Sergio Aguero and Gonzalo Higuain in the mix, you can spread it around.
Messi will still be the focal point, of course, but Argentina can't obsess over him in the way some believe he has obsessed over his World Cup shortcomings thus far. Tata Martino did that at Barcelona this season and -- while it may be a coincidence -- the more Messi-focused they became, the worse they performed.
You will always look to your superstars. Messi will still play every minute of every game, and likely will get more touches than any forward. But you can't have a situation where you sink or swim based on his mood.
Sabella appears to be moving in the right direction. His squad is blessed with attacking riches while being rather pedestrian at the back. One approach would have been to go top-heavy and slug it out with opponents, letting his strikers simply outscore rivals, and with an in-form Messi, it may have been the way to go.
We may yet see him do that, but the indication is that starting on Sunday against Bosnia, Sabella will go with a five-man defence, tightening up the back to avoid nasty surprises. If it means fielding guys like Fedo Fernandez and Jose Maria Basanta -- hardly superstars relative to the men who came before them in Albiceleste jerseys -- then so be it. They're still extra bodies.
Create the platform down low -- never mind if it's a bit ugly -- so you can soar up high. It worked for Louis van Gaal against Spain, didn't it?
It also makes sense right now, not least because in Messi and Aguero, Argentina have two players who were slowed by injuries in 2013-14. A bumpy season with lots of unscheduled stops, but also a whole lot less wear and tear on the tires.
As for Messi, he can play himself into this World Cup. He doesn't need to debut with heroics, unlike, say, Cristiano Ronaldo (with a weaker supporting cast and a tougher opponent) against Germany on Monday. A result and a quiet game will be worthwhile if it means getting stronger as the tournament progresses.
Whether Brazil will see Messi rid himself of the final counterargument his critics throw up at him in the G.O.A.T. conversation remains to be seen. Much more important -- to Argentina fans and, you suspect, to him -- is that they take their best shot at winning the World Cup on their neighbour's soil.