To Brisbane we go for State of Origin III, the decider. The Blues historically struggle in deciders, particularly north of the border. The Maroons were magnificent in Melbourne to level the series and will run out in front of their home crowd, absolutely brimming with confidence.
The Blues may have thrown the baby out with the bath water -- making six changes to their losing side -- in a move that smacks of the desperation they will surely be feeling. Queensland have replaced only their injured and look much more settled.
Can New South Wales pull off a massive upset or will Queensland add yet another shield to their collection?
We do our best to sort it all out.
Wednesday, July 7
State of Origin, Game III
Queensland vs. New South Wales
Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm (AEST)
Queensland: 1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Robert Toia, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Jojo Fifita, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Sam Walker, 8. Thomas Flegler, 9. Harry Grant, 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui, 11. Briton Nikora, 12. Kurt Capewell, 13. Reuben Cotter Bench: 14. Max Plath, 15. Pat Carrigan, 16. Jeremiah Nanai, 17. Trent Loiero, 18. Reece Walsh, 19. Murray Taulagi Reserve: 20. Corey Horsburgh
Coach: Billy Slater
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Jack Bostock 3. Bradman Best 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Mark Nawaqanitawase 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Reece Robson 10. Mitchell Barnett 11. Hudson Young 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Cameron Murray 15. Addin Fonua-Blake 16. Haumole Olakau'atu 17. Blayke Brailey 18. Ethan Strange 19. Tolutau Koula Reserve: 20. Victor Radley
Coach: Laurie Daley
Officials
Referee: Touchies:
Bunker:
Prediction: Heading into the third and deciding game of the 2026 State of Origin series, I finally find myself agreeing with Queenslanders. New South Wales just don't seem to get Origin. Every year Queensland pick their best available side, based largely on incumbency with form an important, but almost secondary, consideration. The Maroons know which players are capable of winning Origin games and for the most part they persist with them.
When Queensland lose, they evaluate the loss, make any necessary minor adjustments, but largely back the same players to dig them out of the ditch they find themselves in. They understand that even the best players can have an off night occasionally, and the answer is to allow them to prove themselves next time, not kick them to the kerb.
The Blues always seem to be selecting a side to win the next game at all costs. Lose a game and all bets are off for the following game. Forget about team morale, the feeling that the coach has your back and trusts you to come good, if you have a bad game, you are likely to be watching the next one. It adds extra pressure to players, knowing that they are one off night from losing their jersey.
For this decider Daley has dropped Brian To'o, whose form has been a bit off lately. To'o has been one of the best for the Blues over the years and he is obviously a favourite with the players and the fans. Queensland would never drop a Brian To'o. Queensland would trust that To'o had it in him to come good when needed most, to go from a player in dusty form to an Origin winner in one night.
The Blues have also reinstated Stephen Crichton, who comes out of almost every tackle he makes for the Bulldogs clenching his busted shoulder in agony. As good as he is, he will be targeted and he will struggle to be as effective in defence as he should be. Bradman Best comes back into the team, after a good game against the Eels on the weekend. Kotoni Staggs can probably frame his jersey. Dylan Lucas is gone, thrown to the wolves in Game II, he must be doubting whether he was ever worthy of a run. Haumole Olakau'atu returns to the bench, where he should have remained for Game II and Apisai Koroisau has been punted after not getting a run at the MCG.
Blues fans' heads are spinning and the players must be equally confounded. Meanwhile the whole of Queensland sit back and nod their heads. This is why the Blues can't have nice things, like Origin shields.
Tip: Maroons by 16
PointsBet odds: Maroons $1.50 (-4.5 $1.83) Blues $2.55 (+4.5 $1.95)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.