It's Monday with the weekend's action in the books, so it's time to react with fire or cool the jets on some NBL takes.
Kane Pitman, Olgun Uluc and Peter Hooley are here to decide... is this just a headline, or is it a genuine storyline?
GARY BROWNE SHOULD HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED FOR STRIKING ARON BAYNES
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
I think most people are on the same page with this one. The more you watch it, regardless of the outcome, the action itself from Gary Browne probably warrants him to miss at least one game. The medium impact, intentional and low contact ticks all the appropriate boxes in my opinion. Which is why I can actually understand that because of the framework around how these decisions are made, the outcome makes sense. However, when you consider this isn't the first case of Browne doing something similar and just this specific action itself, it's hard to believe that he will be able to suit up for the Phoenix next game.
Kane Pitman: Storyline.
In a little over a month, the NBL has handed down two separate striking charges to Gary Browne that have been deemed to be intentional contact. A fine seemed appropriate for the first instance, but once you receive your first citing, a second incident that is determined to be of greater impact clearly must come with an increased penalty if the process is to be taken seriously. The NBL is far from the only sport that follows a similar operating system for dishing out sanctions, but they've missed the mark on this one and the Phoenix should feel incredibly thankful on the back of their latest disappointing loss.
Olgun Uluc: Storyline.
The key here, as mentioned by both Kane and Pete, is the fact that this is a repeat offence for Browne. At that point, the initial criteria for adjudicating the act should be put to use, and then built upon. The message being sent here is that you can just keep doing the same wreckless thing, and it's just, in his case, paying some pocket money to make it go away. I don't buy the 'MBL' stuff - do we really think the entire league apparatus is in on this grand conspiracy to help this small market team get ahead? - so I put this more down to the NBL's Game Review Panel process dropping the ball here.
THE ILLAWARRA HAWKS AND NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS WILL MAKE THE PLAY-IN
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
I was apprehensive on the Hawks still, even after they've shown a completely new spirit and style of play under Justin Tatum. Now, why they haven't had any massive tests just yet, the fact that other teams around them keep stumbling, they just might make a run at this top six. The likes of the Bullets, Phoenix and even Cairns, have dropped a few games that many thought they should be winning, which means that the last couple of spots are well and truly up for grabs. All the Hawks can do is take it one game at a time and hope other results also fall their way because their percentage could hurt them otherwise. The Breakers on the other hand, I'm almost expecting them to comfortably make the top six at this rate. This squad now seems to be one of the most talented rosters on paper and they are not a team anyone wants to face in February if they keep this up.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
Two weeks ago in this column (and since on the ESPN Aussie Hoops Hour Podcast) I was VERY sceptical that the Hawks could climb all the way out of their early season hole. I pointed to a six-game stretch that included two games against Tasmania and South East Melbourne, as well as matchups with Perth and Sydney. I mentioned if they went 3-3 they'd give themselves a chance. They are currently 3-1 with SEM and the JackJumpers to come.
Looking ahead, the final four games of the season for Illawarra are at New Zealand and Sydney, followed by home tilts against Sydney and Melbourne to close. If they make it in, it would be one of the more remarkable turnarounds in recent memory.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
It's been a remarkable rise for both of these teams; more-so for the Hawks, who looked completely down and out and have suddenly thrust themselves into this conversation. The Breakers' part of this is less surprising; we knew the talent was there, and that it was just a matter of getting healthy. I'm with Kane, in that the run home for the Hawks is just quite tough. Sure, some of those other teams hovering around the top six are looking shaky, but the Hawks - who are finally looking like the team a lot of us thought they'd be, because, on paper, they're talented - have to run through some tough competition to stick in that play-in group.
DENZEL VALENTINE HAS FOUND HIS PLACE AS SIXTH MAN FOR THE SYDNEY KINGS
Peter Hooley: Storyline.
It's been a wildly inconsistent season for the Kings on both ends. There has been a lot of focus on their defensive efforts, or lack thereof, but their offense has also been very patchy at times. A lot of that I believe can be put down to their depth in certain positions and players' roles constantly having to change with injuries and players being in and out of the rotation. Valentine had been having his own struggles to find his role within this Sydney team and now coming off the bench, he should be able to see this as an opportunity to come in and be aggressive and be sparkplug for the Kings. Much like Ian Clark in Melbourne, Valentine should relish this role without the pressure of having to find a way to make an impact alongside Adams and Hogg in the starting unit.
Kane Pitman: Headline.
The Kings needed a shakeup, and it shouldn't be a major shock that they turned to Shaun Bruce and Angus Glover for an injection of energy. That being said, the five-man lineup of Valentine, Alex Toohey, Jaylen Adams, DJ Hogg and Jordan Hunter is Sydney's most used lineup on the season, while also being dominant in the process, outscoring teams by 22.5 points per 100 possessions.
While seemingly not in danger of dropping out of the postseason, the game against Cairns quickly became 'must win'. In the process, some key ingredients found a spark. I suspect Valentine is back with the starters down the stretch of the season at some point.
Olgun Uluc: Headline.
I would expect the Kings to continue changing up their starting lineup as the season progresses, largely based on matchups. Against Cairns, who are very active on the perimeter defensively, it made sense to have another point guard in Shaun Bruce out there. The Kings' next game is against Melbourne United, who are similar in that regard, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Mahmoud Abdelfattah go with the same lineup. Yes, Valentine looked great as the sixth man on the day, but this will likely be situational. There'll be some games where you want to open games with Valentine's shooting and creation, so it doesn't seem like the Kings are going to get married to the idea of him just as a sixth man, a la Jordan Usher in Perth or Chris Smith in Brisbane. I'd bet on starting units being situational from here on out.
Advanced statistics for this article sourced from spatialjam.com and realgm.com