England Nations League permutations: What they need vs. Spain and why it matters

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Walcott: England looked sloppy in win over Croatia (0:42)

England have secured their place in the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals, but there is still plenty at stake when Thomas Tuchel's side face Spain in their final group game on Sunday.

A 2-1 victory over Croatia at Wembley, sealed by Harry Kane's winning penalty on his record-breaking 126th appearance, ensured England would finish in the top two of League A Group 3 and thus reach the last eight.

However, England remain three points behind Spain heading into their showdown in Madrid -- after losing to the world champions at home in September -- with the winners of the group earning a potentially more favourable route through the knockout stages.

So, what do England need to finish top, why does it matter and who could they face in the quarterfinals? ESPN breaks down all the permutations.

What do England need against Spain to finish top?

England's task is simple: beat Spain in Madrid on Sunday and they will finish top of their Nations League group.

Spain currently lead Group A3 with 15 points, three ahead of England on 12, having won all five of their matches so far.

But despite losing 3-2 to Spain at Wembley, England would leapfrog Luis de la Fuente's side with a victory of any scoreline because of a superior overall goal difference.

Why does finishing first or second matter?

Finishing top would give England two significant advantages in the Nations League quarterfinals.

Firstly, the four League A group winners are seeded for the quarterfinal draw and will be paired with a runner-up from another group -- theoretically offering an easier opponent. The current runners-up are Greece in Group A2, Denmark in Group A4 and, somewhat undermining that theory, France in Group A1.

Perhaps more crucially, group winners have home advantage for the second leg of their quarterfinal tie, meaning England have the opportunity to play the decisive match at Wembley.

If England finish second, they will be unseeded, face a group winner and have to play the second leg away from home.

The quarterfinals are played over two legs, with the winners progressing to the Nations League semifinals.

Who could England face in the Nations League quarterfinals?

England's potential opponents will depend on whether they finish first or second, with one more game to be played in each group.

Teams from the same group cannot meet in the quarterfinals, meaning England cannot be drawn against Spain.

As things stand, the following teams remain in contention to qualify from the other three League A groups:

Group A1: Italy (10 pts), France (10 pts), Belgium (9 pts)

Group A2: Netherlands (8 pts), Greece (8 pts), Germany (5 pts)

Group A4: Portugal (12 pts), Denmark (6 pts), Wales (3 pts), Norway (3 pts)

Portugal have already secured their quarterfinal place, while the other groups are still taking shape ahead of the final round of fixtures.

- England mark Harry Kane's night with a win, but defense remains a concern
- Has the 'gap' closed? England's progress under Thomas Tuchel faces defining Spain test
- Spain vs. England is 'winner takes it all' - Thomas Tuchel

When is the Nations League quarterfinal draw?

The draw for the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League quarterfinals will take place on Friday, Nov. 20, at 11 a.m. GMT at UEFA headquarters.

By then, all four League A groups will have been completed, confirming the eight quarterfinalists and which teams will be seeded.

The draw will determine the four two-legged ties, with group winners facing runners-up from different groups.

When are the Nations League quarterfinals, semifinals and final?

The quarterfinals will take place during the March 2027 international break.

Quarterfinal first legs: March 25-27, 2027

Quarterfinal second legs: March 28-30, 2027

Nations League semifinals: June 9-10, 2027

Third-place match and final: June 13, 2027

The four quarterfinal winners will progress to the Nations League Finals in June, where the semifinals, third-place match and final will be decided in single-leg matches.

What would winning the Nations League mean for England?

While the merits of winning the Nations League for Euro 2028 qualification are reduced for Tuchel's side -- more on that below -- it would give England their first major men's international trophy since the 1966 World Cup.

England's best previous finish in the competition came in its inaugural edition in 2019, when they finished third under Gareth Southgate. Portugal are the defending champions, having beaten Spain on penalties in the 2025 final, and are the only nation to have won the competition twice.

The Nations League also offers an alternative route into the European Championship playoffs for the best-ranked group winners who have not already qualified

England do, however, already have an additional safety net as co-hosts of Euro 2028, alongside Scotland, Wales and the Republic of Ireland.

While all four nations must participate in qualifying, UEFA has reserved two places at the tournament for the two highest-ranked host nations who fail to qualify automatically.

That means England are not guaranteed a place at Euro 2028, but have an alternative route into the tournament even if they fail to qualify through their group.