Returning to F1 was never going to be easy for Honda, but it wasn't meant to be this difficult. As the Japanese brand arrives at its home circuit of Suzuka for the first time in F1 since 2006, it faces another difficult weekend.
The problems with the Honda power unit are well known. Its V6 turbo is down on power and its energy recovery system is unable to provide its full 160bhp boost for the full length of some of F1's longer straights. In Spa-Francorchamps and Monza the ERS boost was cutting out well before the braking zone, making it near impossible for Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button to defend position from cars with more efficient systems. Honda is hoping to address those issues over the winter with an overhaul of its MGU-H and turbo, but this weekend in Suzuka its hopes of putting on a show for its loyal fans are slim.
While Honda's problems have created untold headaches for McLaren, having just two competitive engine manufacturers is bringing on a nasty migraine for the rest of the sport. Mercedes remains the power unit to beat and Ferrari's progress this year has helped its works team take three wins, but Renault is still lacking. Such are Renault's troubles that it has led to an early termination of its supply deal with Red Bull and Toro Rosso, creating a serious strain on F1's engine supply market.
Initially Red Bull approached Mercedes, but the thought of offering the Brixworth's prized asset to its main rival for race wins in 2014 did not go down well in Stuttgart. That left no option but to knock on Ferrari's door, but the situation is getting increasingly desperate with Red Bull making clear that it will quit F1 if a deal cannot be sealed. Although Ferrari might not be too worried about seeing one of its rivals leave the sport and a flood of top engineers enter the job market, the quit threat should be resonating with those in control of the sport.
Meanwhile, the man who was supposedly behind a deal for the Volkswagen Group to buy Red Bull Racing and develop its own engines, Martin Winterkorn, has stood down as chief executive over the German firm's emissions scandal in the USA. Right now, F1 is likely to be a long way down VW's list of priorities as its market value plummets and it faces potential fines of $18 billion. With very few manufacturers in a position to commit to F1 and Renault's future in the sport still far from certain, a return to success for Honda by this time next year is not only important for McLaren and Japan, but for F1 as a whole.
In need of a podium
Over the summer Valtteri Bottas was a man in demand. Seen as natural successor to compatriot Kimi Raikkonen, his management was in talks with Ferrari about a deal for 2016 before settling for Williams. But amid all the headlines, Bottas has only scored one podium this year at the Canadian Grand Prix, compared to the six he took over the course of last year. The resurgence of Ferrari is the main reason, but with his team-mate Felipe Massa twice on the podium since Canada, Bottas could do with one or two more of his own before the end of the season to protect his growing reputation.
In need of points
Over the summer, McLaren set Singapore as its target race for improvement. The theory was that the track layout would suit its car and help mask the deficiencies of the Honda power unit, but more importantly it gave the team a ray of hope while struggling at the high-speed tracks of Spa and Monza. In the end gearbox problems for both cars while running in the points brought the team back down to earth, although for once it was a McLaren failure and not a Honda problem to blame. Expectations have been set lower for Suzuka, but that will only make any potential points all the more special at the end of the weekend.
ESPN prediction
The whole paddock was surprised by Mercedes' drop in performance at the Singapore Grand Prix, not least the team itself. While the soundbites to the media remained humble, Mercedes engineers simply could not get their heads around the fact their car had dropped over a second off the pace in the space of two weeks. The only logical explanation was that Mercedes was not getting its tyres to work in the same way as its rivals round the street circuit and that normal service would resume this weekend in Japan. As a result, it will be a big surprise if Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg do not return to the front of the grid this weekend, but picking between the two drivers is more difficult. Rosberg's pole position here last year will give him some hope, but ESPN is sticking with Hamilton to take his 41st career victory and equal Ayrton Senna's record.
Betting
Following his victory in Singapore, Sebastian Vettel's odds of winning in Suzuka are marginally shorter than Rosberg's. Vettel is 10/3 to win while Rosberg is 7/2, but Hamilton remains the favourite at 8/11. Kimi Raikkonen has far more tempting odds at 14/1 ahead of Daniel Ricciardo at 28/1. A top six finish for a McLaren driver is set at odds of 20/1, but it would most likely require some serious upsets in the race.
Weather
Rain is expected during Friday practice, which could leave teams on the back foot heading into qualifying and the race. Fears of a tropical storm hitting Suzuka over the weekend appear to be unfounded with forecasts now predicting sunshine and temperatures in the high over 25C for Saturday and Sunday.
Tyre Talk
Prime: Hard
Option: Medium
Paul Hembery, Pirelli motorsport director: "Suzuka is one of the most aggressive circuits we face on the Formula One calendar from a tyre perspective: it's right up there with Silverstone and Spa. There's been some resurfacing in recent years that has taken away a bit of the asphalt roughness that it used to have, but this does not diminish the overall challenge of Suzuka in any shape or form. It's not unusual to face extremes of weather in Japan: either very wet, or dramatically hot. We've seen both over the years - and quite a few conditions in between - so it's a very tough circuit all round. The drivers absolutely love the experience of driving here, and over the course of the weekend we are always privileged to meet some of the most passionate and dedicated fans we see anywhere all year. They are a vital part of what makes coming to Suzuka so special. Of course, like everybody else, Jules Bianchi will be in our thoughts more than ever over the Japanese Grand Prix weekend."