We're down to two teams: defending champion San Miguel and perennial contender Magnolia. It is the eighth time since 1988 these two franchises have met in the finals. Will the Beermen claim their fourth straight Philippine Cup crown? Will the Hotshots win their first title in four years? Chuck Araneta, Charlie Cuna, Carlo Pamintuan, Jutt Sulit, and Noel Zarate discuss.
1. The biggest advantage of SMB in this series is...
Chuck: ...the 4-time MVP who's at the peak of his powers, flanked by a starting lineup that can rival any legendary team's squad, ably supported by a much deeper and hungrier bench.
Charlie: Familiarity - with each other, with being in the finals, and with winning it all. Aside from being an almost intact team, with some impactful additions, the players, coaches, and team officials all believe they are where they ought to be. They've been there, done that for three straight years. They have been the best team in this conference for quite some time. They have no reason to believe they won't win it all again.
Carlo: Experience. When you win three straight Philippine Cup titles, that means you have the whole thing down to a process. With their team adding even more weapons to their established core, SMB has a mix of players who know what it takes to win and those who are hungry to prove themselves such as Von Pessumal and Matt Ganuelas-Rosser. The Beermen know what it takes to reach the top of the mountain.
Jutt: They have a complete, healthy lineup. Set aside the fact that they have four-time MVP June Mar Fajardo. Set aside the fact that they have a lot of other MVPs after him. The most important thing here is that all of them will be available in this series.
Noel: They have, IMHO, the greatest starting five in PBA history. Sure, Chris Ross is battling a few injury issues and Alex Cabagnot had one moment in the hospital, but with the extended rest they have gotten the necessary recuperation time to gear up for their unprecedented third title defense. The scary part is that the Beermen's bench has even gotten better.
2. The biggest advantage of Magnolia in this series is...
Chuck: ...they relish being the underdogs. They have dobermans on defense that will make life difficult for the backcourt of SMB. If Rafi Reavis and Ian Sangalang can make June Mar even a little bit uncomfortable, this series could be closer than people expect.
Charlie: They are the underdogs, the Davids going up against the big, bad Goliaths, who have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Yes, Magnolia was the many-time champion (as San Mig Coffee) before SMB began its run of dominance, but now, the Hotshots have the opportunity to play without much care and to be fancy-free as the challengers, the upstarts. With the right disposition, attitude, and approach (plus several championship-tested veterans as well), the Pambansang Manok is in a position to surprise everyone, including SMB.
Carlo: Hunger. This is a team that toiled for an entire season only to be eliminated in the semifinals. This eager bunch is raring to prove that they could win a championship after the franchise's Tim Cone era.
Jutt: This is tough. There's really no apparent advantage for Magnolia. And that's not a knock on them. It's not because they're not a good team. San Miguel has just been flat out dominant this conference. I'd probably say the same for any other team going up against the Beermen.
Noel: They are hungry and have been peaking at the right time. The injury to Marc Pingris may have even worked to their advantage as Ian Sangalang is flashing MVP form and he has taken some of the pressure off of Paul Lee. Suddenly the Hotshots have a vast array of options against the defending champions. Make no mistake about it: Magnolia is now a legit contender.
3. Next to June Mar Fajardo, the most important Beerman in this series is...
Chuck: Marcio Lassiter. He was the best player of the team in the semis. With the injuries piling up for SMB, Lassiter has become more assertive on offense. He averaged three triples on 40% shooting during the semis versus Ginebra's rugged defense.
Charlie: This is tough. I'll choose Chris Ross. The guards of Magnolia played extremely well in the semis versus NLEX. Ross is the best opposing guard-stopper in the league and surely he will relish the chance to disturb Paul Lee or Mark Barroca or Jio Jalalon and make their lives as hard as they made Kiefer Ravena's in Game 6 of the Magnolia-NLEX series. With SMB, the offense will take care of itself. When the defense clicks, too, starting with Ross, the opponent is in big trouble.
Carlo: Chris Ross. Magnolia is loaded with talented guards which means Ross' defense will be crucial in the series. And with Paul Lee being the biggest weapon in Magnolia's arsenal, Ross will be very important in this series.
Jutt: Arwind Santos. Magnolia will be able to match up with the guards of San Miguel. They even have a deeper rotation compared to the Beermen. But with guys doubling or tripling up on June Mar down low, there will be a gargantuan opportunity for Arwind to take over the series.
Noel: Marcio Lassiter. He will stretch the Magnolia defense and that will open up June Mar Fajardo's scoring opportunities. Lassiter is also a key defender and actually holds the squad together when the guards aren't at full strength. If Marcio has an off night on either end, San Miguel will struggle. Lassiter's play in this long series will dictate the outcome.
4. Next to Paul Lee, the most important Hotshot in this series is...
Chuck: Ian Sangalang. One of the best two way bigs in the present PBA. He's motivated to show everyone that he should be discussed amongst the best frontcourt players in the league today. Magnolia will need him to be incredible in this series to have a shot against the champs.
Charlie: Ian Sangalang. There has to be some sort of post/inside presence on the side of Magnolia. Sangalang has had an impressive conference and some of his most stellar play came in the just-concluded semis against NLEX, where he ran rings around his defenders and shot at such a high percentage. If he can continue to be a threat down low, keep his FG accuracy up, and stay out of foul trouble, he can help the guards get comfortable from the outside and Magnolia's offense will run more smoothly.
Carlo: Ian Sangalang. The Hotshots need to somehow match the inside game of SMB to have a chance in the series. Sangalang was tested by NLEX but he showed he can also be a passer when double-teamed. He might also be tasked to defend Fajardo or Arwind Santos at times so he'll be important on both ends of the floor.
Jutt: Ian Sangalang. I could have gone with one of the many other guards of Magnolia. But that's the thing, they have a bunch of other guards. Sangalang is practically their lone offensive option underneath. Of course, Rafi Reavis will get his points here and there, but Ian is the only guy they can really set up in the post and let loose.
Noel: Ian Sangalang. He has inherited Pingris' job while still having to do his own. He now demands double teams and could get Fajardo into foul trouble with his being frisky underneath. San Miguel could try to neutralize him by going zone, but Sangalang has also evolved to be a crafty passer and when he shares the floor with Aldrech Ramos could give the Beermen lots of matchup issues and may help in tiring San Miguel's frontline. Sangalang's play will dictate how far the Hotshots can go in this series.
5. Prediction
Chuck: San Miguel Beermen celebrate their fourth straight championship in six games.
Charlie: SMB has been a juggernaut in this conference. It's hard to predict against the three-time defending champions. SMB in 6.
Carlo: I think beating SMB without Marc Pingris would be too much to ask for the Hotshots. He would have provided them knowledge of what it's like to beat the SMB franchise in the finals. Without him, the Beermen are simply too strong for Magnolia. SMB in 6.
Jutt: SMB in 5.
Noel: San Miguel in 6.