Giant Killers is back for our 16th annual metrics-based forecast of big upsets in the 2022 men's NCAA tournament. As always, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the first round.
(Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game based on both the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have shown the strongest correlations to tournament upsets in the past. Picks are sorted into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: best bets, worth a long look, not completely ridiculous and, last and in all probability least, stay away.
Hopefully the titles speak for themselves.
Sound good? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here are the 2022 upsets in the making.