Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games
By Derek Carty
Jose Quintana (36% rostered) projects as the fifth-best pitcher on the slate today, ahead even of certain aces like Brandon Woodruff and Dylan Cease. His matchup against the Rockies is fantastic, facing a weak offense that is taking a massive park hit. He's pretty widely available and the best streaming option of the day.
If Quintana isn't available, take a look for Zach Plesac (46%), Patrick Corbin (34%), Justin Steele (10%), or Nick Pivetta (45%). All are in good spots and are worthwhile pickups for those in need of starts. • Taijuan Walker is rostered in most leagues (85%), but if he's on your roster, you should strongly consider benching him today. He gets a big park downgrade going from Citi Field into Truist, and he faces one of baseball's elite offenses in the Atlanta Braves. Throw in a strong opposing pitcher (Charlie Morton), 82-degree heat, and a bit of wind blowing out to center, and you have a spot you should avoid.
Offense is somewhat lacking on today's slate, with THE BAT X only projecting 4 offenses to score 5+ runs, but the top offense has quite a few widely-available pieces. The Seattle Mariners get a big park upgrade (particularly in terms of home runs) and face a weak lefty in Jose Suarez. Eugenio Suarez (57%) is a fantastic home run speculation if he's available. Carlos Santana (43%), Dylan Moore (sub-1%), Cal Raleigh (4%), and Sam Haggerty (2%) are all also viable choices.
If you're looking for speed, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a strong matchup against Nick Pivetta (and likely Kevin Plawecki). Oneil Cruz (35%) and Greg Allen (sub-1%) both project in the top 3 for steals today, according to THE BAT X.
It's not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B -- 45%) at Zeuch
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF -- 2%) vs. Pivetta
Matt Vierling (PHI, CF -- 0%) at Zeuch
Kevin Newman (PIT, SS -- 1%) vs. Pivetta
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF -- 93%) at Woodruff
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS -- 72%) at Woodruff
Christian Vazquez (HOU, C -- 60%) at Cease
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday
Philadelphia Phillies at T.J. Zeuch
Atlanta Braves vs. Taijuan Walker
Prop of the day
Sonny Gray Strikeouts: Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-140)
THE BAT sees Gray putting up 6.4 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.8% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.56.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
- THE BAT projects Gray in the 88th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.
- The Kansas City Royals (24.4 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.
- Dan Merzel profiles as a Extreme Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be in charge of the strike zone today.
- Gray has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
The weatherman calls for the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.